Scandal and Shifting Polls Impact Ohio Congressional Race

Representative Max Miller lags behind his Democratic challenger, Brian Poindexter, according to a recent poll in Ohio’s contentious House district. Despite allegations of abuse and calls for his withdrawal, the Republican congressman decided to remain in the race. Tavern Research’s poll positions Poindexter with an eight-point lead over Miller, shattering the Republican’s hopes as the deadline to step down has passed.

Miller represents Ohio’s 7th District, an area around suburban and rural Cleveland that supported Donald Trump by 11 points in the past. His ex-wife, Emily Moreno, has accused him of abuse. She alleges incidents involving threats with a firearm and physical assault, as revealed in court documents and police interviews. The New York Times reported claims of Miller throwing hot water, pointing a gun at her, and injuring their child. Miller denies these allegations, maintaining joint custody of his child, suggesting a lack of credible evidence against him.

The allegations have cast doubt on Miller’s reelection, with Democrats viewing the district as a prime opportunity for a seat flip. Despite the district’s Republican lean, current political conditions and Trump’s declining approval ratings create a Democratic opening. Newsweek sought comments from both Miller and Poindexter’s campaigns but has not yet received a response.

Miller Struggles in Polls

In the Tavern Research poll, 54% of respondents expressed support for Poindexter, while 46% backed Miller. Miller’s favorability rests at 39%, with 50% holding an unfavorable view. Poindexter has a 41% favorability, with only 25% unfavorable. This poll surveyed 635 likely voters from August 4-5, 2026, with a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

Another poll by co/efficient, first reported by The New York Times, showed Poindexter leading 47% to 33%. This data suggests a bleak outcome for Miller’s campaign, with 48% of voters indicating the allegations made them less likely to support him. The poll surveyed 615 likely voters from August 5-6, 2026, and had a margin of error of 3.94 percentage points.

Election analysts from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have shifted the race’s status to a toss-up, further complicating Miller’s path forward.

Democrats Aim to Capitalize

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced the inclusion of Poindexter in its “Red to Blue” program, indicating top focus on this race. Representative Suzan DelBene, the DCCC Chair, emphasized Poindexter’s potential as a beneficial leader for Ohio.

Prediction Markets and Republican Pressure

Prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, show Poindexter with an 80% chance of flipping the seat. These markets track political outcomes using real-money wagers, but they are not always predictive.

Prominent Republicans urged Miller to exit the race, fearing Democrats could take the seat. Senator Jon Husted expressed concern, stating, “anyone who commits domestic violence is not fit to serve in Congress.” Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno, Miller’s former father-in-law, also advised his withdrawal.

Despite these calls, former President Trump refrained from intervening, labeling it as a “very sad situation.”

Impact on House Majority

Miller’s choice to stay in the race makes the Ohio district one of the most competitive. The current House makeup stands at 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, with one independent and four vacancies. Winning just a few seats could shift the balance of power to Democrats.

The Cook Political Report lists 19 seats as toss-ups, which could be pivotal in determining the House majority in 2027. Prediction markets give Democrats an 85% to 87% chance of reclaiming control. The outcome of this race could be crucial in shaping the future Congress.