Potential Democratic Contenders for the 2028 Presidential Race

In recent developments, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jon Ossoff have gained traction against California Governor Gavin Newsom in the Polymarket prediction market for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Polls indicate a dynamic race, with candidates likely to start announcing their campaigns in the months following the midterms next year. Prospective Democratic candidates are refining their messages and visiting key primary states to boost their profile and connect with voters.

Prediction Markets and Their Role

Prediction markets offer insights into public sentiment regarding the 2028 Democratic field. They allow participants to trade contracts linked to political events, turning monetary wagers into probability estimates. These markets fluctuate in response to polling, fundraising, and political trends, reflecting trader sentiment at particular moments but not necessarily predicting future outcomes.

Recent data from Polymarket illustrates a rise in prospects for Ocasio-Cortez, the New York representative favored by progressives. As of Tuesday, her chance of securing the nomination stood at 15 percent, up from 9 percent the previous month. Ossoff’s likelihood of nomination increased to 14 percent from less than 6 percent a month earlier. Meanwhile, Newsom’s chances declined from 25 percent on June 7 to 18 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris maintained her chances at about 8 percent.

Polling Insights

Contrary to prediction markets, recent polls favor Harris. A FocalData poll revealed Harris leading with 33 percent support, compared to Newsom’s 15 percent, Ocasio-Cortez’s 9 percent, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s 8 percent. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro polled at 7 percent, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly at 5 percent, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker at 3 percent. Ossoff and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear each held 2 percent support. The poll included 764 registered voters nationwide from June 26 to 30.

Another poll from McLaughlin also placed Harris ahead, showing her with 26 percent support. Newsom followed with 16 percent, Ocasio-Cortez with 9 percent, and Buttigieg with 8 percent. Pritzker, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, and Shapiro all had 5 percent support, while 3 percent backed Kelly, and Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer each garnered 2 percent. This poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from June 17 to 23.

In April, a Harvard/Harris poll indicated Harris had the backing of 50 percent of Democrats, rising from 41 percent in March. Newsom had 22 percent support, Shapiro 9 percent, Ocasio-Cortez 8 percent, and Pritzker 6 percent. Five percent chose other candidates. The survey polled 2,745 registered voters from April 23-26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87 percentage points.

2028 Democratic Candidates’ Stances

Some Democratic figures have not dismissed running in 2028. Harris, after visiting states like Michigan and South Carolina, hinted at another possible run while talking to Reverend Al Sharpton in April. She mentioned her experience serving close to the presidency.

Newsom shared thoughts on running during a June 2025 interview, expressing openness to the possibility without making any commitments.

Ocasio-Cortez, speaking with David Axelrod, highlighted her broader ambitions focused on lasting social change rather than specific electoral goals.

Ossoff has declared he has no interest in the 2028 presidency. He prioritizes winning reelection in Georgia, viewed as leaning Democratic by the Cook Political Report.

Other potential candidates, like Whitmer, have already stated they do not plan to enter the race, suggesting a strong lineup will compete for the nomination without them.