Los Angeles Mayoral Race Heats Up: Bass, Raman, Pratt in Close Contest

A recent poll by UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times reveals a tight contest in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Mayor Karen Bass, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and reality TV star Spencer Pratt are virtually tied ahead of the June primary. The poll shows Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%, all within the margin of error. The race lacks a clear front-runner, marking a shift from earlier polls that showed Bass with a stronger lead. Voter turnout could determine which candidates move to a November runoff.

Prediction markets favor Bass, despite the close polling. Polymarket gives her a 71% likelihood of success, while Kalshi shows 69%. These are significantly higher than Pratt and Raman’s odds. “It’s a choice between a Mayor who reduced homelessness and hired more officers, a Councilwoman who voted repeatedly to allow encampments near schools and to shrink LAPD, or a reality TV villain. We will win,” stated Doug Herman, a Bass campaign adviser, in a statement to Newsweek.

New Poll Insights

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies conducted the largest public survey from May 19 to 24, comprising 1,913 registered voters. With a margin of error of roughly 3 percentage points, the results indicate a tightly contested race. A polling expert described the race as statistically insignificant with each candidate having distinct voter bases. The drop in undecided voters from 26% to 10% highlights a shift toward challengers.

Campaign Dynamics

The campaign dynamics have been shaped by key issues such as homelessness, housing affordability, and public safety. The aftermath of the 2025 Palisades Fire and current Sandy Fire have also played roles. Pratt, who lost his home in the fire, criticizes Bass’ disaster response, while Raman challenges her policies on homelessness and governance. Pratt’s campaign uses AI-generated videos that gain online traction, although their influence on voter behavior remains uncertain.

Comparison with Previous Polls

Earlier surveys painted a different picture. A May Emerson College poll placed Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22%, and Raman at 19%. March polls showed higher uncertainty, with Bass at 25%, Raman at 17%, and Pratt at 14%. A UCLA Luskin poll in March showed Bass leading modestly but with a high percentage of undecided voters. The recent data shows Bass holding a consistent lead, but Raman and Pratt have made gains.

Prediction Markets’ View

Prediction markets offer a contrast to polls, showing strong support for Bass. At present, Bass trades at 71% on Polymarket, with Pratt at 25% and Raman at 6%. Kalshi provides slightly different odds, but still supports Bass as the likely leader. These markets suggest Bass is well-positioned for the runoff, though polling indicates a competitive race for the second spot.

Stephanie Pratt’s Support

Spencer Pratt’s candidacy has gained his sister’s support. “Wow, was I wrong. He has spent every day since the fires, finding the facts, the mistakes, the negligence and uncovering the truth that they never wanted us to know,” Stephanie Pratt told Vanity Fair.

Looking Ahead

The top two candidates will proceed to a November runoff if no one achieves a majority in the June primary. With candidate support converging and fewer undecided voters, turnout in the final days of the race could be decisive.