Intense Primary Race for Andy Ogles in Tennessee

Republican Representative Andy Ogles is up against a strong primary challenger in Tennessee. Charlie Hatcher, the former commissioner of agriculture, is his competitor, endorsed by Governor Bill Lee. The state’s congressional map changed this year for the midterm elections. Republicans aimed to eliminate a Democratic-held seat previously protected around Memphis by the Voting Rights Act, which the U.S. Supreme Court weakened. Ogles’ district shifted, moving from areas near Nashville and Middle Tennessee to parts of the western state and Memphis.

The endorsements in this race are divided. Lee supports Hatcher, while former President Donald Trump backs Ogles for reelection. Significant outside funds have been invested, and Ogles faces criticism over his comments on homosexuality and Muslims. Primaries in Tennessee will occur on Thursday, August 6. Newsweek contacted both campaigns for comments via email.

Ogles Leads in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are favoring Ogles. On the primary morning, he had an 80% chance of winning on Kalshi, slightly down from 85% a month ago. On Polymarket, his victory chances stood at 73%. Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes. They turn real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices change as traders respond to polling, fundraising, and broader political trends. Although they reflect trader sentiment, they do not always predict the future accurately.

Tight Race in Polling

A Tusk Strategies poll showed a tight race. Ogles received 37% support, while Hatcher had 33%. This survey included 400 likely Republican voters from July 26 to 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. The district is not seen as very competitive since Trump won it by 23 points in 2024. Analysts like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball deem it safe for the GOP nominee.

On the Democratic front, Chaz Molder, Columbia’s mayor, is leading. He has endorsements from former Governor Phil Bredesen and Representative Steve Cohen, not seeking reelection in his Memphis-centric district. Even though the district became more conservative after redistricting, it remains a target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program.

Competing Endorsements from Lee and Trump

While Lee and Trump usually align, they back different candidates here. Hatcher announced Lee’s endorsement in a Facebook post. The governor praised his friendship with Hatcher, highlighting his conservative values and support for Trump.

“I know Charlie. I know his conservative values and how much he loves our country. Charlie has stood with President Trump since day one,” Lee stated.

Trump endorsed Ogles in October 2025.

“Andy is a Conservative Warrior who has strong support from his Community. In Congress, he is fighting tirelessly to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A. and American Energy DOMINANCE, Safeguard our Elections, Keep our now very Secure Border, SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment,” Trump wrote.

Trump also held a “tele-rally” with Ogles in late July, as reported by The Tennessee Lookout. Lee’s endorsement coincides with the super PAC Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, funded by renewable energy developers, investing $2 million to boost Hatcher, according to The New York Times.

“They are interfering in a Republican primary because they know how hard I FIGHT their radical agenda. We cannot let them BUY a Tennessee seat in Congress. I’m endorsed by President Trump because I’m a fighter and will never back down,” Ogles responded regarding the investment.

Controversial Remarks from Ogles

Ogles faced backlash for some of his statements. In June, he posted on X that “homosexuality has no place in America,” later deleting it. He clarified that his communications team posted it, calling the post “stupid” and “hurtful” and taking action against the employee responsible.

This sparked pushback, including from Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who stated, “for all of recorded history, homosexuals have been part of humanity,” emphasizing adults’ choices. In March, Ogles made comments about Muslims not belonging in American society, drawing further backlash. Richard Grenell, a special envoy to Trump, criticized Ogles on X, urging respect for the First Amendment.