Implications of Trump’s Approval Ratings for Midterm Elections

Trump’s Approval Rating Overview

With the midterm elections approaching in November, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are low in most states, except for a few Republican-held areas. Nationally, only 35% of voters approve of his job performance while 59% disapprove, giving him a net approval rating of -24 according to Civiqs’ polling. This poll collected 124,759 responses since his second-term inauguration.

State-by-State Analysis

In battleground states Trump won in the 2024 election, he is now significantly underwater. Even in states where he enjoyed positive ratings, such as Indiana and Mississippi, his numbers have dropped into negative territory.

The White House dismisses these low approval ratings, citing his election win as a fundamental measure of public support. An interactive map shows Trump’s approval ratings across various states.

Why Approval Ratings Matter

Typically, the president’s party loses seats during midterm elections. Trump’s current unpopularity may challenge Republicans with maintaining control of Congress, while Democrats aim to gain enough seats to take control.

Areas of Trump Support

In Wyoming, Trump’s approval rating stands at a net positive of +22, with notable support also in Republican stronghold states such as North Dakota (+18), South Dakota (+9), Alabama (+6), Idaho (+9), West Virginia (+13), Arkansas (+8), Oklahoma (+7), and Montana (+4). Despite this support, even these figures show declines from when Trump began his second term.

Where Trump Faces Challenges

Trump’s approval is lowest in Hawaii with a net rating of -60. Other states with low approval include Vermont (-54), Maryland (-52), Massachusetts (-48), California (-43), Connecticut (-41), Washington (-43), Oregon (-40), and New York (-39).

Battleground States Impact

Trump remains underwater in all swing states he carried in 2024, such as Arizona (-13), Georgia (-23), Michigan (-22), Nevada (-21), North Carolina (-16), Pennsylvania (-19), and Wisconsin (-17). Florida also shows a negative rating.

Midterm Election Implications

Political scientists anticipate Trump’s approval ratings could adversely affect Republican candidates in midterm elections. Grant Davis Reeher notes that midterms often reflect the president’s first two years in office, predicting Democrats might perform well due to current political dynamics.

White House’s Perspective

In response to poll results, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle highlighted Trump’s achievements, emphasizing his continued push to achieve his agenda despite negative approval ratings.

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