Darline Graham Secures GOP Nomination for South Carolina Senate Race

Darline Graham has won the Republican nomination for the South Carolina Senate race. She will face Democrat Annie Andrews in the November general election. This election follows the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, who passed away from an aortic dissection in July.

Graham’s Victory in the Republican Primary

Darline Graham received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. She defeated Representative Ralph Norman, obtaining roughly 52% of the Republican primary vote. The Associated Press declared her victory at 9:01 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Following Lindsey Graham’s death, a special primary election was called. Lindsey Graham had represented South Carolina in the Senate since 2003 and was up for reelection this year. He had secured the party’s nomination in June, necessitating a new candidate after his passing. Republican Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, the late senator’s sister, to serve the remainder of the current term.

Democratic Nominee: Annie Andrews

Annie Andrews secured her position as the Democratic nominee in June. South Carolina presents a challenging landscape for Democrats due to its historical Republican leanings. However, Andrews believes there is an opportunity for a competitive race. She highlighted the importance of grassroots fundraising efforts in her campaign strategy.

We’ve had a steady increase in our fundraising. We’re feeling really good about the grassroots aspect of our fundraising and building our war chest, she stated in an early August interview.

Andrews criticized Republican candidates for aligning closely with Trump. She notes that political insiders face scrutiny as voters seek outsiders in this election climate.

Polls and Prediction Markets

Polling data post-Graham’s death is scarce. Andrews’ campaign released an internal poll showing a close race. Prior internal polls revealed Graham leading by just three points. No independent polls have been published to support these results.

Prediction markets favor Republicans, giving them an 88% chance to win on Kalshi and 87% on Polymarket. These markets aggregate contracts tied to political outcomes, reflecting trader sentiment but lacking absolute predictive accuracy.

South Carolina’s Republican Lean

Historically, South Carolina has favored Republicans. The state last supported a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976 with Jimmy Carter. Since then, Republican candidates have consistently won the state by substantial margins. Democrats tend to perform better in urban areas but struggle in rural regions where racial polarization favors the GOP.

In 2020, Democrat Jaime Harrison gained media attention but fell short against Lindsey Graham by 10 points. Despite a competitive 2018 race, Democrats have yet to achieve significant gains.

With President Trump’s approval ratings at record lows, Democrats see potential in expanding their campaigns to traditionally Republican areas. However, forecasters and Republicans maintain that South Carolina will likely stay Republican post-midterms.