Controversy Over Prediction Market for Deportations

Congressman Criticizes Deportation Prediction Market

A Democratic congressman criticized a prediction market that lets users bet on Trump administration deportations. The administration aims for mass deportations as President Trump returned to office in January 2025, targeting up to 1 million removals in the first year. Official data on actual deportations remains scarce, leading to pressure from Trump supporters for increased action. The Kalshi market offers outcomes on deportation totals, predicting a 96% chance of over 400,000 removals. Representative Seth Moulton labeled the market as “disgusting” on social media, urging Kalshi to close the bet.

“Kalshi letting users bet on deportation numbers is as perverse as Polymarket letting people wager on the lives of our troops,” Moulton posted. “I was the first Member of Congress to ban staff from trading on prediction markets because human lives are not casino chips. Kalshi, you claim to be the more ethical platform. Prove it and shut this down now.”

Moulton’s office reached out to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Kalshi for comments. Surprisingly, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) appeared to support the market’s predictions. In a response to Newsweek, DHS used a gambling phrase to signal confidence in exceeding the implied deportation figures.

Moulton’s Immigration Stance

Seth Moulton has consistently opposed measures from the Trump administration regarding immigration. He advocates for stronger legal protections for migrants. In June, he proposed legislation to restore judicial review for Temporary Protected Status decisions, aiming to prevent deportations without court oversight. His office provides guidance for immigrants, clarifying their constitutional rights and ensuring legal representation. Though not against all enforcement, Moulton insists that deportation policies require due process and judiciary involvement.

Legality of Prediction Markets

The legality of prediction markets like Kalshi is under debate. Kalshi presents itself as a federally regulated exchange with CFTC registration. The contracts are financial products under federal commodities law, not state gambling laws. The Commodity Exchange Act permits certain event contracts but requires extra scrutiny for topics like war, terrorism, and assassination. The CFTC has authority to prohibit contracts against the public interest. The status of prediction markets covering elections, government actions, and other sensitive issues is uncertain. Some Democrats want stricter regulation of prediction markets involving government and military actions.

Deportation Figures Under Trump

Since Trump’s return to office, immigration enforcement has increased, yet deportation figures remain below the administration’s aim of 1 million annually. Analysts report approximately 400,000 deportations in his first year, higher than past years but below the administration’s targets. Deportations under Trump are complicated to assess. Fiscal Year 2025 statistics include months before his inauguration, not fully reflecting his policies. ICE removals are part of the story, with Customs and Border Protection and Border Patrol also active in removals. Data from analyst Ariel G. Ruiz Soto shows ICE removals rose notably, indicating increased emphasis on interior enforcement. This has sparked debate on meeting campaign promises, making deportation totals a focused metric of Trump’s immigration policy. The focus is part of the controversy over Kalshi’s market, which turns the sensitive issue into a speculative financial product.