Close Contest: New Hampshire Senate Race Heats Up

Progressives are eagerly anticipating a last-minute push to elevate Karishma Manzur in the New Hampshire Senate Democratic primary. However, Representative Chris Pappas leads in both polls and prediction markets.

New Hampshire leans Democratic but remains closely divided. In the 2024 election, it backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by merely 3 points, making it the most divided state in New England. This year, both parties see the race as competitive, with incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen retiring.

Democrats expect the national climate, influenced by anti-Trump sentiments, to favor them. Yet Republicans argue that former Senator John Sununu could make the race more competitive. Some recent polls hint at a statistical tie.

Tuesday’s primary will determine the landscape for the general election. While Pappas is seen as the frontrunner, progressives hope Manzur can surprise, as shown by a recent University of New Hampshire poll indicating a tightening race. Sununu is preferred in the Republican primary against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.

We’re hoping for a strong turnout. It’s a tight race.

The latest poll from the University of New Hampshire places Pappas 13 points ahead of Manzur, 47% to 34%, surveying 2,143 residents, including 881 Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points. Pappas’s lead has decreased over time, previously marking 24 points in June, 43 in April, and 54 in January.

Other recent polls show Pappas with a wider lead. A Saint Anselm College poll indicates a 31-point lead, while a GQR poll shows Pappas up by 56 points.

Pappas, holding a moderate stance, has been serving the eastern part of New Hampshire in Congress since 2019. His prior roles included time on the New Hampshire Executive Council. He is also tied to the well-known Manchester restaurant, Puritan Backroom.

Manzur aligns with the progressive movement, differentiating herself with support for Medicare for All and her criticism of Israel.

On prediction markets, Pappas enjoys a significant advantage. As of Monday afternoon, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket saw him with a 98% chance of defeating Manzur.

Republicans view New Hampshire as increasingly competitive after two new polls positioned Sununu closely against Pappas in a general election scenario. A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll put Sununu at 37% support compared to Pappas at 36%. A UNH poll suggested Sununu led by 2 points over Pappas.

However, some polls are more favorable for Pappas. A Saint Anselm College poll showed him ahead by 7 points over Sununu. Meanwhile, a GOP internal poll indicated Pappas led by 1 point.

Manzur’s performance against Sununu in a general election remains untested as no public polls have gauged this scenario yet.

Pappas has alerted supporters through fundraising emails, such as one titled “We’re losing,” emphasizing the critical nature of this race. There is growing anxiety among Democrats, urging more external financial support to prevent a Republican upset.

John Sununu comes from a notable New Hampshire political family. His popularity and recognition bring uncertainty to the race, despite Democratic hopes for an easy hold.

New Hampshire historically leans blue but keeps a balance with Republican governors. As of early August, there were 351,815 registered independents, 299,976 Republicans, and 247,069 Democrats. Securing the independent vote is crucial for victory in November.

In previous elections, New Hampshire has favored Democrats in Senate races. Yet, Republicans have also secured significant positions, like the governorship, in recent years.

The outcome of this race holds significant implications for Democrats’ control of the Senate. Republicans maintain a 53-47 majority, requiring Democrats to gain four more seats for a majority, factoring in Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote for Republicans.

Alongside New Hampshire, Democrats aim to defend seats in swing states like Georgia and Michigan, while eyeing GOP seats in Maine and North Carolina.

Forecasters regard the Senate race as leaning Democratic, with a slight advantage for the party.

During Tuesday’s primary, voting hours vary. Many of New Hampshire’s largest cities close polls at 7 p.m. ET, but timings depend on specific municipalities.

Contact for story: Anna Commander and Anthony Murray.