Chris Pappas’ Lead Narrows in New Hampshire Senate Race

Democrat Chris Pappas’ lead is shrinking against Republican John E. Sununu in the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race. With midterm elections nearly a month away, a new Rasmussen Reports poll indicates 49% support for Pappas compared to 44% for Sununu. This five-point lead contrasts with last month’s 11-point lead at 45% to 34% in favor of Pappas.

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement opens the seat for the upcoming general election, which the Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up. Midterm elections often gauge the political climate for the party in power, with the president’s party historically losing seats. Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority in both the House and Senate.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won New Hampshire in the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump. New Hampshire hasn’t elected a Republican senator in over 15 years. Newsweek reached out to Sununu and Pappas’ campaigns for comment.

New Poll Insights

The recent poll highlights 3% support for Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante, with 4% of voters undecided. Pappas garners 89% of the Democratic vote, 15% of Republican voters, and 40% of non-affiliated voters. Sununu receives backing from 84% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats, and 44% of unaffiliated voters.

Pappas holds a strong lead among women, with 53% supporting him compared to 33% for Sununu. Conversely, 53% of men favor Sununu, while Pappas has 42% male support. Among voters 65 and older, Pappas secures 58% versus Sununu’s 39%. Sununu, a previous senator from New Hampshire from 2003 to 2009, sees stronger support among those under 40.

The poll was conducted from October 2 to October 4, surveying 979 likely New Hampshire voters with a margin of error of 3%. Rasmussen Reports, identified as “Lean Right” by news-rating website AllSides, suggests a moderate alignment with conservative ideologies.

Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, commented to Newsweek, “Republicans have a narrow path in NH. Sununu reducing the Rasmussen lead to 5 points aligns with Cook’s toss-up rating. The Sununu name and outside funding enhance GOP chances in a state that votes diversely for governor and Senate. A 5-point deficit with a month left is not a victory but keeps the race open.”

Agranoff added, “Securing the Senate isn’t an NH-only issue. Republicans need this seat or another to counterbalance other potential losses. If Sununu continues gaining, it affects the majority calculations. A steady 5-point gap is cautionary, not definitive.”

What Other Polls Indicate

A University of New Hampshire poll shows 50% support for Pappas, 42% for Sununu, 2% for Laplante, 2% for a write-in, and 4% undecided. Conducted from September 17 to September 21 among 1,418 likely voters, it has a margin of error of 2.6%.

In August, Sununu led 45% to Pappas’ 43%, with 5% voting for others and 7% undecided. This survey ran from August 20 to August 24 among 1,878 likely voters, with a 2.3% margin of error, making it statistically tied.

A co/efficient poll last month found a 46% deadlock between Pappas and Sununu, with 9% undecided. Pappas’ favorability was 37% compared to a 51% unfavorable rating. Sununu had 41% favorability versus a 47% unfavorable rating. This survey was conducted from September 9 to September 11 among 958 likely voters, with a 3.15% margin of error.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, an AI assistant, for this story. Contact Newsweek editors for more details.