California’s Gubernatorial Race Faces Close Competition

As California approaches its June 2 primary, a recent poll indicates a tight race among three candidates vying to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom. The poll, conducted by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows 25% of likely voters supporting Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former Biden Cabinet secretary. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, follows with 21%, while 19% back Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist.

Becerra’s support has surged since March, when he was at 5%. Other candidates, such as Republican Chad Bianco and Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter, have seen declines. With only the top two candidates advancing to the November election, the competitive nature of the race becomes clear.

We’re assuming that … the Democrats will in fact turn out in the final week after we had concluded our poll and begin to make up ground on what looks like an early lead for Hilton, and those voters favor Becerra, said poll director Mark DiCamillo.

DiCamillo notes low voter turnout and the unique ‘jungle’ primary system, making predictions harder. Although all registered voters received mail-in ballots, many remain unreturned.

The poll reveals distinct voter preferences: Democrats prefer Becerra, while Republicans lean toward Hilton. Gender and ethnic groups also exhibit preference patterns, with women and Latino voters favoring Becerra, and Black voters more inclined towards Steyer. Libertarians and regions such as Orange County tend to support Hilton.

The race lacks a clear front-runner, unlike past campaigns featuring figures like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jerry Brown. Key issues impacting voters include healthcare reductions, California’s budget volatility, rising gas prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, cost of living, homelessness, and public safety.

Former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal amid allegations and Steyer’s record campaign funding signify how dynamic the race is. Steyer has invested $212 million into his campaign, while major donations flow into independent expenditure committees.

Despite most voters being Democrats, fears emerged that the party might fracture, letting two Republicans advance. Trump’s endorsement greatly benefited Hilton, doubling his support among his base.

This poll of 8,578 registered California voters, conducted online in both English and Spanish, shows a margin of error of roughly 2 points. The potential Democratic dominance in the upcoming general election may affect congressional races, especially if no Republican tops the ticket.