Five years ago, Baltimore faced a serious violence issue, with over 300 homicides annually. Today, the city has managed to decrease both homicides and nonfatal shootings by approximately 60%. Since September 2022, Baltimore’s homicide rate has consistently decreased. Remarkably, the city recorded only 133 homicides in 2025, the lowest in nearly 50 years.
A new working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research reveals that Baltimore’s reductions have been about 25% ahead of trends in other cities, without increasing arrests. This was not a random occurrence. It required effort, strategy, and time. Decades earlier, Baltimore attempted to combat violence with heavy arrests. During zero-tolerance policing, arrest numbers reached 100,000 in a city of roughly 600,000 people. This eroded trust and violence continued unabated.
While enforcement plays a role in public safety, aggressive, unfocused actions particularly harmed non-white communities and failed to significantly impact violent crime. In 2022, Baltimore shifted its strategy, emphasizing violence reduction by focusing on data that showed violence was concentrated among a small number of people, groups, places, and conflicts. Only about 2% of residents were linked to groups responsible for up to 75% of serious violent acts. This insight redirected focus to the most harmful elements.
The Group Violence Reduction Strategy involved direct outreach by trusted community leaders. The message was clear: Real help is available, though continued violence would meet with focused consequences. Individuals who accepted help received support like life coaching, job training, education, housing, and relocation options. Those persisting in violence faced accountability by police and justice partners.
Equally crucial was establishing a service infrastructure to reach people seen historically only through enforcement. This focus on support and accountability yielded measurable results. In the Western District, where this strategy was first implemented, homicides and nonfatal shootings decreased by about a third within 18 months, with no rise in low-level arrests or spill-over violence.
This approach wasn’t new for Baltimore, but previous attempts failed in execution. This time, the city chose a deliberate five-year timeline. Starting with the Western District, known for high violence levels, the city expanded the strategy district-by-district, ensuring readiness. While some demanded faster results, the focus remained on effective action rather than popularity.
Managing violence reduction requires coordination. Weekly, police, prosecutors, outreach workers, service providers, community partners, and city agencies assess incidents, identify risks, and plan responses. Community members influenced the approach because they often know the problem — and the solutions — best.
Evidence from other cities suggests that well-managed, partnership-based strategies work when sustained beyond brief political cycles. The aim was always clear: reduce violence while minimizing community harm. This required legitimate consequences paired with real support, concentrating law enforcement efforts on individuals most responsible for the damage.
The positive effects of Baltimore’s strategy can be seen citywide. Families feel safer, young people receive support to succeed, and new businesses arise on revitalized streets. Though challenges remain, Baltimore’s progress demonstrates government capability to tackle difficult problems by focusing on results, building partnerships, and implementing evidence-based solutions.
Mayor Brandon M. Scott has led these historic violence reductions, while investing in education, recreation, and affordable housing. Anthony A. Braga, Ph.D., contributes expertise as a criminology professor and director at the University of Pennsylvania.