Alaska’s Ongoing U.S. Senate Vote Count

As of November 8, Alaska’s U.S. Senate race remained unresolved. The ballot count had been stagnant since November 4. Out of 215,906 ballots tallied, Democrat Mary Peltola was leading Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan by 637 first-choice votes. Neither candidate had crossed the 50 percent mark. If this remains the case by November 18, ranked choice votes will start being counted.

Complicating the race, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a candidate sharing the senator’s name, received 3,600 votes, significantly exceeding Peltola’s lead. Data indicated more of Sullivan Jr.’s supporters preferred Peltola over Senator Sullivan.

Amid the election count, legal challenges have emerged. A federal judge dismissed a lawsuit intended to block a Peltola win over concerns about the candidate name confusion. State authorities contended the ballot design minimized voter confusion, though Governor Mike Dunleavy initiated an investigation into claims of deliberate recruiting by Peltola’s associates, which both parties deny.

The state had approximately 51,000 uncounted early and absentee ballots, with more expected via mail. If neither candidate receives over 50% once all votes are in, second-choice votes will be counted on November 18. Here’s Newsweek’s analysis of what each candidate needs for a win.

Using data from the state’s November 4 ballot report, Newsweek excluded rejected absentees and estimated the remaining votes by subtracting already processed ballots from those received. Additionally, 10,528 absentee ballots had been dispatched but not yet returned. Domestic mail ballots are valid until November 13, and overseas ballots until November 18.

The Math

Alaska had counted 215,906 ballots, with 204,530 machine-read, revealing voters’ rankings. The rest, primarily hand-counted, were totaled but lacked public rankings. Newsweek used available data to project second-choice trends, applying these rates to the state’s full tallies.

Ranked choice proceeds in rounds, eliminating the last-place candidate and reallocating their votes to the next choice. The state will conduct this count on November 18. According to Newsweek’s estimates:

• Write-ins are eliminated first, distributing 700 ballots almost evenly, having negligible impact.
• Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.’s exit redistributes 3,600 votes: 1,040 to Peltola, 590 to the senator, and 650 to Gerald Heikes. Around 1,320 ballots have no further choice.
• Peltola leads by about 1,090 votes after Sullivan Jr.’s elimination.
• Heikes, garnering 5,500 votes, is next to exit. This includes 4,846 initial votes and 650 transferred votes. Around 2,380 transfer to Senator Sullivan and 960 to Peltola, with 2,160 ranking neither candidate further.

In the final estimate: Senator Sullivan leads with 105,290 votes to Peltola’s 104,960, a 333-vote advantage.

Net effect: Second-choice preferences increase Senator Sullivan’s margin by about 970 votes over Peltola, transforming her lead into a shortfall of roughly 333 votes. This is Newsweek’s speculation, not an official result.

Further counts are anticipated soon. Based on the current state and Newsweek’s ranked-choice projection, here’s the share of the approximately 51,000 uncounted votes each contender needs to secure:

• Winning without a ranked-choice count requires exceeding 50% of first-choice votes. Post-ranked-choice votes only count for Peltola or Senator Sullivan.
• If 10,000 additional mail ballots meet deadlines, Peltola needs 57.0% and Sullivan 58.0% to win outright. Ranked-choice thresholds will see minimal adjustments.

Essentially, if the remaining ballots divide evenly, Senator Sullivan narrowly leads in Newsweek’s forecast. Peltola requires a approximately 0.7-point edge to overcome this margin.

According to state data, early and absentee ballots gave Peltola about 56.5% of first-choice votes, rising to 58% after ranked choice. However, late mail returns might shift these numbers, serving as a baseline rather than a prediction.

For more details, Newsweek editors Steven Frank and Oliver Pritchard are following the story closely.