Disputed Outcome in Prediction Markets Following Cardi B’s Super Bowl Appearance

CHICAGO — Cardi B’s involvement in Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show raised questions in the prediction market community. The extent of her participation puzzled two major prediction platforms, prompting a trader on Kalshi to file a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding their handling of the event.

Prediction markets allow individuals to trade or wager on outcomes of future events using event contracts, which usually pose yes-or-no questions. The pricing of these contracts is linked to the perceived probability of the event happening, with each contract bought at a price between $0 and $1, indicating a 0% to 100% chance as determined by traders.

Kalshi’s market for the question “Who will perform at the Big Game?” saw a significant $47.3 million in wagers, while Polymarket’s similar contract experienced a $10 million trading volume. During Apple Music’s Super Bowl LX Halftime Show on February 8, notable celebrities like Pedro Pascal, Jessica Alba, and Cardi B joined the show. Cardi B specifically participated by dancing with Karol G and Young Miko, though it was unclear if she sang.

This ambiguity led Kalshi to settle at the final trading price before the market paused: $0.74 for those who bet “No” and $0.26 for those who bet “Yes.” Consequently, Kalshi returned all funds to its users. Conversely, Polymarket resolved their contract as if Cardi B did indeed perform, which sparked disputes, and a conclusive decision is expected to be announced shortly.

A trader holding a “Yes” position at Kalshi filed a CFTC complaint, claiming Kalshi mishandled their contract under the Commodity Exchange Act. The trader seeks a return of $3,700. As of Wednesday, a CFTC spokesperson declined to comment.

The incident followed a record day for prediction markets, coinciding with the Super Bowl, as Kalshi recorded in excess of $1 billion in trading volume— an increase exceeding 2,700% compared to the previous Super Bowl. Year-over-year trading volume for all Super Bowl futures contracts reached $828.6 million, marking a more than 2,000% increase.

The high volume surge imposed technical deposit issues, prompting Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara to express on X (formerly Twitter) about the unexpected traffic increase. Kalshi addressed the issue by reimbursing processing fees and crediting affected users.

Robinhood Markets celebrated the burgeoning prediction markets, highlighting their thriving status in its Q4 2025 financial report. CEO Vlad Tenev mentioned during an earnings call that the sector is poised for expansion, foreseeing substantial growth propelled by upcoming global events such as the ongoing Olympics and the impending World Cup.