The upcoming release of the U.S. employment report is set to provide a detailed look at the past year’s labor market, offering insights into a period characterized by a notable slowdown in hiring. The January employment report, delayed due to a brief government shutdown, is scheduled to be published at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report will coincide with crucial revisions to last year’s monthly jobs data.
As President Donald Trump and his administration devise an economic strategy appealing to Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, the forthcoming employment reports will be significant. These reports could either bolster or challenge their narrative, depending on the data’s implication.
Every January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates recent labor market data by integrating a set of state data, enhancing the accuracy of its reports. Due to the complexity and time required for collecting and analyzing state records, such revisions occur only annually.
The upcoming revision marks the final adjustment for the period ending in March 2025. The BLS projected that the annual employment figures for March 2024 to March 2025 would decrease by over 900,000 jobs once complete data from states were incorporated.
In addition to these revisions, the BLS will release updated monthly jobs numbers for the entire year of 2025. So far, each reported month has seen a downward revision, and now December’s employment figures are expected to be re-evaluated. These revisions are not indicative of any flaws or manipulation in the previously released data nor do they suggest anything improper within government data agencies.
Expectations and Implications
For January, analysts anticipate an addition of merely 55,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.4%. If these figures are accurate, January will represent the fourth consecutive month with less than 60,000 new jobs added.
The administration is bracing for potentially unfavorable revisions in the labor market’s depiction during the president’s second term and possibly even before, going back to 2024. The White House has hinted at a readiness for these figures to paint a somber picture.
According to Peter Navarro, the President’s senior trade advisor, the administration’s assertive immigration policies, including deportations, have reduced the U.S. workforce size, which in turn impacts monthly job growth. However, quantifying the impact of undocumented immigrants in the labor market is challenging given that many do not appear on formal payrolls.
Economic Insights from the Past Year
Despite potential grim outlooks, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett emphasized that lower job numbers could correlate with strong GDP growth. He pointed out ongoing slower population growth accompanied by rising productivity.
“The labor market remains weak,” echoed Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at the end of January. He highlighted how payroll growth in 2025 was significantly below average, imaging this year’s data revision might demonstrate a lack of payroll employment growth.
The previous year was particularly challenging, with the U.S. economy adding only 584,000 jobs, marking it as the slowest hiring year outside a recession since 2003. This sluggish growth, when coupled with recessions, reflects the slowest hiring since the 2020 pandemic.
Anomalies in Data Collection
Market analysts and labor economists refer to the previous year as a period fraught with irregularities for U.S. labor markets and their tracking mechanisms. Factors such as tariff-induced demand fluctuations contributed significantly to these anomalies.
Steve Kopack, a senior reporter at NBC News, continues to analyze these complexities as the nation awaits the upcoming employment report.