Florida’s Political Landscape After the Midterms: Examining Shifts and Future Prospects

Florida largely defied the Democratic momentum seen across the country in the recent midterm elections. However, with several congressional races showing a shift toward Democrats compared to the last midterm election in 2022, questions arise about Florida’s competitiveness in 2028.

Republicans have hailed Florida’s ability to remain largely red during this nationwide Democratic wave, but the results reveal a more nuanced picture. A memo from Governor-elect Byron Donalds’ campaign describes Florida as the ‘premier Republican stronghold in America’ since Texas elected Democrat Gina Hinojosa as governor. Although Republicans secured most of Florida’s congressional races, many contests shifted toward Democrats, sometimes markedly compared to the 2022 midterms.

Florida holds particular importance for President Donald Trump, who made the state his primary residence after leaving New York. Florida has leaned increasingly Republican in recent elections, with Trump winning by around 13 points over Kamala Harris in 2024, compared to a narrow victory of just over 1 point in 2016.

How Close Were Florida Midterm Races?

Republicans narrowly defeated Democratic opponents in many congressional races, including a special election for the U.S. Senate seat. Four House races remain too close to call. Florida Republicans aimed to expand their majority through a redistricting plan that reformed seats in the GOP’s favor. Despite this, no immediate gains were made from targeted Democratic seats. However, DeSantis noted that without the new map, Democrats might have flipped several Republican seats.

In 2024, Florida voters sent 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats to the U.S. House. In April 2026, Florida enacted a revised map to address an unconstitutional racial gerrymander,” DeSantis posted on X. “Last night, Florida voters likely elected 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats to the U.S. House. Without the new map, it would have been 18 Republicans and 10 Democrats.

U.S. Senate Results

A special election completed the term of former Senator Marco Rubio, who left to serve as Trump’s Secretary of State. Republican Ashley Moody, appointed in 2025, won the Senate election, defeating Democrat Angie Nixon by less than 3 percentage points. Moody received 50.9% of the vote, while Nixon garnered 48%. Rubio had secured the seat by over 16 points against Val Demings in 2022.

Nixon’s competitive showing raises questions about the impact of increased funding. She lacked financial backing from major PACs, despite support from figures like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Would more funding enable a Democrat to win Florida’s Senate seat?

Sharon Wright Austin, a political science professor at the University of Florida, commented to Newsweek, “Democrats are encouraged by Texas’ outcome and are preparing for 2028. Some candidates lost by small margins. Redistricting backfired, allowing Democratic incumbents to retain seats. We must ask if Jolly or Nixon could’ve won with more national Democratic funding.”

Florida Governor’s Race

Byron Donalds won the gubernatorial race, becoming Florida’s first Black governor with 50% of the vote compared to David Jolly’s 48.7%. This competitive race contrasts with the 2022 election, where Ron DeSantis won by nearly 20 points. Post-midterms, DeSantis predicted challenges for Republicans in regaining congressional control by 2028, suggesting 2032 for Senate leadership.

U.S. House Race

While Republicans retained many Florida U.S. House seats, margins differed significantly from past elections. District 13 saw Anna Paulina Luna winning by a mere eight-tenths of a point, compared to an 8-point victory in 2022. In District 21, Brian Mast’s 9-point victory was narrower than the 27-point margin in 2022.

Republican gains were evident in certain areas. Democrat Pia Dandiya secured District 22 by under 4 points compared to 10 points in 2022. Four critical House races remain unresolved, with slim margins separating candidates.

As elections approach in 2028, Florida voters will reevaluate all U.S. House seats, the U.S. Senate seat, and the presidency. This period will test whether improved Democratic margins indicate a competitive shift in Florida or if Republicans will maintain their stronghold on the state.