Iowa Senate Race: Polls Indicate A Tight Contest Between Turek and Hinson

Democrat Josh Turek is gaining traction among voters in Iowa’s competitive Senate race against Republican Ashley Hinson. This race holds significance as they vie for the seat vacated by retiring Senator Joni Ernst. Recent polls highlight a close contest between the candidates, with discussions on tariffs, immigration, and voting records affecting their campaigns. Inflation and fuel costs remain pivotal concerns among Iowans.

In a YouGov poll conducted from October 6 to October 12, Turek slightly led Hinson, 47 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent of voters undecided. This poll included 2,245 likely Iowa voters. It shows Turek appealing to those who previously supported Trump. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1 percent.

Among the respondents, 41 percent had supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, while 52 percent voted for Trump. Turek’s edge suggests gaining some support from Trump’s past voters.

The YouGov poll’s findings indicate Turek’s lead is narrower than in other surveys. For example, a Suffolk University poll from October 1 to October 4 showed Turek with a 4-point lead over Hinson, at 48 percent to 44 percent. Other polls, including a Beacon Research analysis in September and an InsiderAdvantage poll, also reflect Turek’s advantage.

Conversely, Hinson has also led in several polls. An Emerson College poll on October 5 and 6 favored Hinson at 47 percent to Turek’s 45 percent. A CNN poll during late September to early October showed Hinson leading by 2 points. Similarly, polls from Quantus Insights and New York Times/Siena University indicated her narrow leads.

Following their second debate on Tuesday, the polls showed Turek and Hinson’s tight race. The debate timing suggests it did not affect the YouGov poll outcomes.

The poll also evaluated Trump’s approval in Iowa. Results showed 29 percent strongly approved, 17 percent somewhat approved, 5 percent somewhat disapproved, and 49 percent strongly disapproved of his performance. One percent were unsure.

Insight from Prediction Markets

Prediction markets lean towards Hinson. Polymarket shows her favored at 57 percent compared to Turek’s 42 percent, while Kalshi reflects a similar trend, with Hinson favored at 58 percent.

Significance of Iowa’s Senate Race

The midterms this year could shift control of Congress. Economic challenges and the Iran war fuel voter concern, impacting political landscapes. Historically, Iowa has swung between parties. Former President Obama won Iowa twice before Trump’s successive victories.

Encouraging news accompanies recent polls for Turek as Democrats last succeeded in Iowa’s Senate race in 2004 when Tom Harkin defeated Christopher Reed. Early voting started on Tuesday and runs until November 2, with midterm elections on November 3.