Understanding the Impact of Race-Conscious Admissions Changes on College Enrollment

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This fall marks the third cohort of college students admitted since the Supreme Court’s decision to end race-conscious admissions. While the effects of this decision are gradually becoming visible, there are complexities that make the overall picture harder to interpret.

Recent research indicates a national rise in the proportion of first-year college students with race or ethnicity reported as “unknown.” This group grew from 3.3% pre-ruling to 4% in 2024, with notable increases at Ivy Plus institutions and Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). Though the overall increase seems modest, it complicates assessment of how admissions are evolving and if educational opportunities are broadening or contracting.

The public focus generally falls on enrollment trends in highly selective colleges, but recent reports provide a broader perspective. Lumina Foundation collaborated with admissions researcher James Murphy from Class Action on two enlightening reports this year. The initial report maps enrollment changes across over 3,000 institutions. The latter report, released in June, scrutinizes the rise in first-year students with race or ethnicity marked as unknown, analyzing its implications for interpreting enrollment shifts.

Murphy’s analysis involved federal data from more than 3,000 institutions, encompassing over 3.5 million first-time enrollments. Comparisons were drawn between the 2024 incoming class and the averages of 2022 and 2023. At Ivy Plus institutions, the proportion of underrepresented students of color reduced by 4.33 percentage points, representing nearly a 19% decline. Specifically, Black enrollment dropped by 25%, while Hispanic enrollment fell by roughly 15%. Contrastingly, state flagship universities recorded an 8% increase in enrollments of underrepresented students of color. White and Asian American enrollment largely stayed consistent across most schools, although Asian American enrollment rose at Ivy Plus institutions.

Murphy describes these patterns as a “cascade effect,” where declines at the most selective schools align with increases at less selective ones. Although these data don’t reveal where individual students might have enrolled before the ruling, they raise questions about the long-term outcomes for students attending institutions with lower completion rates or less robust post-graduation earnings.

The report “Known Unknowns” shifts focus from enrollment locations to the clarity of student demographics. Across all institutions, first-year students with race reported as unknown climbed from 3.3% pre-ruling to 4% in 2024. Most first-year students still had their race or ethnicity recorded, but non-reporting rates varied. Ivy Plus institutions saw non-reporting rise from 3.2% to 5.8%, while HBCUs experienced a rise from 3.2% to 4.9%. Public four-year institutions and state flagships had minimal increases, and only around a quarter of institutions saw non-reporting increase by more than 1 percentage point.

The report goes beyond enrollment to scrutinize application processes. Among 115 colleges and universities with detailed data on applications, admissions, and enrollment, non-reporting among applicants increased by 0.7 percentage points, matching the national enrollment rise. In this smaller, non-representative sample, less selective schools had the highest non-reporting rates before and after the ruling, with the largest increase seen afterward.

Admittance rates for non-reporters were slightly higher than for the overall applicant pool. The reasons are complex: some students might believe not reporting race offers an advantage, others may be uncertain about the ruling’s allowances or colleges’ use of their information. The “unknown” category could also reflect evolving identities, limited category options, or data recording errors. The report found little correlation between non-reporting increases and enrollment shifts in any racial or ethnic group.

An investigation into admissions essays after the ruling by The Hechinger Report reveals varied approaches by students. While some continued writing about racial influences in their experiences, others avoided emphasizing this aspect of their backgrounds. Admissions essays don’t directly explain the rise in unknowns, but illustrate students’ navigation of new, sometimes puzzling signals about disclosure.

Additional resource is crucial to understanding whether access shifts affect completion rates and economic mobility. Understanding who enrolls, their enrollment location, and credential completion is key to grasping the ruling’s long-term consequences. Students, schools, and their supporters are adapting to changed admissions norms. Guidance from the National Association for College Admission Counseling can assist counselors and admissions experts in understanding shifting practices, offering clarity to students for informed decision-making.

The national post-ruling enrollment data spans only one full year. Further federal admissions data is anticipated, potentially enabling researchers to assess applications, admissions, and enrollments thoroughly, although its release timing remains uncertain. As the school year progresses, new data will contribute to understanding whether current patterns are temporary or enduring alterations, ultimately evaluating how enrollment shifts affect college completion and subsequent economic prospects.

Jasmine Davis-Randolph, Ph.D., serves as the strategy officer for research at Lumina Foundation, an independent organization promoting continuous learning beyond high school. James Murphy is a senior fellow at Class Action, advocating for public trust through inclusion rather than exclusivity.