Trump’s Endorsement Secures DiLorenzo’s Win in New Hampshire Primary

President Donald Trump’s influence was evident when his endorsed candidate, Anthony DiLorenzo, clinched victory in the Republican primary for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. With 51.5% of the vote, DiLorenzo defeated Hollie Noveletsky, a former vice chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, who received 26.8%. The Associated Press announced the results at 8 p.m. ET.

Trump’s endorsement continues to hold weight in Republican primaries. However, not all his endorsed candidates have won. Instances exist where opposing Republicans have triumphed over Trump-backed contenders.

DiLorenzo’s Win Reflects Trump’s GOP Popularity

DiLorenzo’s victory followed a poll by the University of New Hampshire indicating a possible lead for Noveletsky by 3 points. The survey, conducted among 443 Republican voters in late August, suggested a tight race.

Trump’s Endorsement Record

On July 13, Trump endorsed DiLorenzo on Truth Social, describing him as a “very successful Businessman and Entrepreneur.” Trump’s record in primaries remains strong, with Ballotpedia citing a 96% success rate this year.

Notably, some endorsements have faltered. In Tennessee’s 5th District, Trump-supported Andy Ogles lost to Charlie Hatcher. In Florida’s 19th District, Catalina Lauf was defeated by Jim Schwartzel. Amir Hassan in Michigan’s 8th District also faced defeat to Thomas J. Smith.

Gubernatorial candidate losses include Burt Jones in Georgia and others like Mike Lindell in Minnesota. Although Trump’s overall approval has decreased, among Republicans, his support remains robust.

A YouGov and The Economist poll shows Trump’s net approval at -24 points nationally, yet +62 among Republicans. The survey’s sample consisted of 1,592 adults.

Republicans’ Prospects in NH-01

Predictions favor Democrats to maintain control of NH-01, currently held by Representative Chris Pappas, who is eyeing a Senate seat. Kalshi gives Democrats an 88% win probability, with Polymarket slightly higher at 89%.

Though the district supported Vice President Kamala Harris by over 2 points in the 2024 election, it’s considered competitive. Republicans hope New Hampshire won’t experience a Democratic surge, especially with Governor Kelly Ayotte favored for reelection and an increasingly tight Senate race.

NH-01 encompasses eastern New Hampshire, including cities like Portsmouth, Dover, and Manchester. While Democrats typically dominate these areas, Republicans perform well in Manchester’s suburbs and the Lakes Region.

Historically, Pappas has secured wins by notable margins, having defeated Karoline Leavitt in 2022 and winning reelection by 8 points in 2024. Political forecasters currently rate the race as leaning Democratic.