Seasonal models suggest an upcoming El Nino climate event, potentially the strongest recorded. Extreme weather may follow, according to WFLA-TV’s Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli from Tampa, Florida. Expected to form by mid-year, this event will affect global temperatures and rainfall, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Although models suggest a significant occurrence, WMO warns of forecasting difficulties during spring.
Understanding El Nino
El Nino signifies a natural warming phenomena of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, disrupting global weather. Its counterpart, La Nina, features cooler ocean waters. Berardelli explains El Nino redistributes Earth’s heat. Currently, subsurface heat in the Pacific is moving east and rising to the surface, marking El Nino’s onset. WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates rapidly increasing sea-surface temperatures, with high confidence in El Nino’s emergence, followed by intensification, says Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO’s chief of climate prediction. El Nino appears every two to seven years, lasting nine to 12 months.
Reasons for Concern
A firefighter battles the Canyon Fire on August 7, 2025, in Hasley Canyon, California. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File)
California Institute for Water Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain notes predictive models identify significant subsurface warm water anomalies, resembling past events. Large heat pulses are key to El Nino’s physics. The potential for a super El Nino exists, though outcomes remain uncertain.
Heat release from the Pacific can intensify heat waves and drought, but also increase moisture, causing floods. El Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, as the Pacific heat dominates. Caribbean regions may experience dry conditions and fewer tropical systems, Berardelli explains.
Global Impact
People walk through part of the Amazon River showing drought effects in Santa Sofia, near Leticia, Colombia, October 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Ivan Valencia, File)
El Nino influences weather globally. The U.S. could face hotter summers and more thunderstorms in the Southwest. Amazonian forest degradation, exacerbated by wildfires, logging, and drought, may worsen in 2026 with a strong El Nino. This surface heat, combined with climate change, might lead to record global temperatures soon, predicts Swain.
University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann describes El Nino as a short-term global temperature increase, followed by La Nina’s cooling effect. Mann emphasizes the ongoing warming trend due to fossil fuel consumption as a greater concern.
Associated Press News Director Peter Prengaman contributed to this report.
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives support from private foundations. AP maintains responsibility for content. Visit AP.org for standards on working with philanthropies, along with a list of supporters and funded areas.
Firefighting Helicopters Crash Amid Greek Wildfire Efforts 
Wildfires Force Evacuations and Cause Extensive Damage in Eastern Washington and Beyond 
Wildfires in Spokane Force Evacuations and Destroy Structures 
Wildfires in Europe: A Growing Crisis 
Michigan Supreme Court Reconsiders Permit for Enbridge Oil Pipeline 
Wildfires and Droughts Impact Europe Amid Climate Change