The likelihood of experiencing snow-covered ground on December 25 varies widely across the United States. Historical data indicates El Niño conditions could greatly influence these chances. The National Weather Service (NWS) describes a white Christmas as having at least one inch of snow on the ground in the morning.
Data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reveal that areas in northern states, mountainous regions, and Alaska have the highest odds for a white Christmas. These regions often see established snowpack before the holiday. Contrastingly, lower probabilities exist in southern states, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. These areas usually maintain warmer temperatures, reducing the likelihood of sustained snow cover through late December.
This year, the potential development of a strong El Niño is under watch. This climate pattern, marked by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, can significantly influence winter weather across North America. According to AccuWeather meteorologist Peyton Simmers, higher elevations in the western United States are more likely to experience a white Christmas under traditional El Niño conditions, as December is usually warmer than average, reducing chances in the eastern United States.
What Is Super El Niño?
A super El Niño is an intensified version of the natural climate cycle, characterized by significantly warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Strong El Niño events alter the jet stream, impacting winter temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall patterns in the United States. The NWS Climate Prediction Center forecasts over a 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño developing during fall and winter 2026-27, with a 69 percent chance of reaching historic levels.
Though the NWS avoids using the term “super El Niño,” instead referring to it as “very strong.” El Niño impacts are most pronounced from late fall to winter, most notably between December and February.
How Does El Niño Impact Snowfall?
Current forecasts highlight a potential strong El Niño development, yet the National Weather Service has not issued a detailed winter outlook. Stronger El Niño events historically bring stormier conditions to the southern U.S. and warmer temperatures to the north. Areas typically enjoying high odds of snow may have reduced chances if warmer air predominates.
Nonetheless, certain locations maintain strong odds regardless of El Niño, due to cold climates and established snow cover. Alaska, along with high-altitude regions in western states such as California, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and parts of Arizona and New Mexico, are usually reliable for snow.
Northern states like Minnesota and North Dakota, alongside eastern states like Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire, might encounter below-average odds due to El Niño-influenced winter behavior. The Great Lakes often experience lake-effect snow, but warmer conditions linked to a strong El Niño may affect this.
Southern states typically face lower prospects; even without El Niño influence, snow is rare. While occasional snowstorms affect places like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, such occurrences are infrequent and difficult to forecast months ahead.
What Happens Next
The map’s main takeaway is that long-term climatology remains influential. States usually accumulating significant snowpack by December still offer the best chances for a wintry Christmas scene, though El Niño impacts temperatures and storm courses.
As the season progresses, forecasters will better understand atmospheric pattern developments. Those hoping for snow might consider looking northward, where favorable odds persist.