Texas Senate Race: Talarico Holds Narrow Lead in Latest Poll

Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton in the closely watched Texas U.S. Senate race according to a recent survey. The poll from SoCal Strategies shows Talarico with 50% of the vote and Paxton at 45%. This indicates a shift since June when Paxton had a small advantage, leading 49% to Talarico’s 47%. Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, is seeing fierce competition due to changing demographics and political trends.

The survey, conducted between September 12 and 13 with 649 likely voters, highlights Talarico’s strong performance among various demographic groups. His support among Hispanic voters surged from 10% in June to 38%, while his backing from independent voters increased from 10% to 45%. Notably, even 12% of self-identified Republicans prefer Talarico, alongside 46% of voters aged 18 to 29. On the other hand, Paxton holds an advantage among white voters, securing 56% compared to Talarico’s 39%. He also leads among voters aged 45 to 64 and those over 65.

The poll suggests a potential tightening as the election looms, with Republican voters appearing more undecided than Democrats.

The survey report indicated that 6% of respondents backing Trump in 2024 are undecided in the Senate race, contrasting with only 1% of Harris supporters. Paxton must gain the favor of these undecided voters and sway a portion of the 12% of Republicans leaning towards Talarico.

President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton, praising him as the “greatest attorney general in America” while criticizing Talarico on social media.

Polls Show Tight Race in Texas

Texas, historically supportive of Republican presidential nominees, presents a significant opportunity for Democrats in 2026. Despite Trump winning Texas by 13.7 percentage points in 2024, Democrats see potential due to demographic shifts and population growth. The state remains one of the longest-standing Republican fortresses, electing no Democrats to statewide office since 1994.

While polls indicate fluctuating leads between Paxton and Talarico, the picture remains unclear. Paxton notably defeated Senator John Cornyn in the primary, setting the stage for this competitive race.

A YouGov/Univision poll from late August to early September indicates Talarico ahead by 5 points, with a 48% to 43% lead over Paxton, and a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. Another poll from Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation found a statistical tie, with Talarico at 44% and Paxton at 43.4%, and 12.6% undecided. When leaners are included, both candidates effectively receive 50% support.

Additional polling, such as Emerson College/Nexstar Media and Fox News, shows the race remains tight. Emerson College reports Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46% with 5% undecided. Meanwhile, Fox News places Talarico ahead 51% to 48%, with a 1% undecided.

Prediction markets also reflect the slim margins, with Kalshi showing Talarico at 52% and Paxton at 48%. Polymarket gives a slight edge to Talarico, with 51% support compared to Paxton’s 50%. Experts from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up.