Steve Hilton’s Bid for California Governor Against Xavier Becerra

Republican Steve Hilton is entering the general-election race against former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. Hilton seeks to become California’s first Republican governor in 15 years. Current Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom cannot run again due to term limits, creating an open seat opportunity that Republicans aim to seize. The GOP has consolidated support around Hilton, capitalizing on voter frustration over issues like illegal immigration and crime.

The Decision Desk predicted Hilton secured the second spot in the general election. Former President Donald Trump praised Hilton’s advancement on Truth Social. According to the Associated Press, Hilton has 25.1% of the votes compared to Democrat Tom Steyer’s 22.4%, with 83% of votes counted. The race for the second candidate spot remains uncalled.

Steve Hilton’s Election Prospects

Polls suggest Hilton faces an uphill battle despite being a contender for governor. A SurveyUSA poll showed Hilton and Steyer both had 20% support, while Becerra had 17%. An Emerson College poll placed Hilton third with 21%, behind Becerra at 28% and Steyer at 22%.

As the crowded primary concludes, Democrats’ support might consolidate behind Becerra, potentially widening the gap against Hilton. Republicans mostly back Hilton, but a unified Democratic frontrunner could hamper his chances. Hilton’s win probability is low, with Kalshi odds giving him a 7% chance compared to Becerra’s 70%.

Hilton’s Strengths

Hilton, a Fox News host, is a recognizable figure with a defined ideological stance. His campaign focuses on reducing taxes, addressing crime, and criticizing Democratic policies. Trump endorsed Hilton, promising to assist if he wins and asserting Hilton could improve the state’s condition. Hilton plans to investigate Newsom over fraud if elected governor.

Despite Republican unity, Hilton needs to attract independents or disenchanted Democrats to succeed. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1 in California, a challenge Hilton will need to overcome.

Republican Success in California

The last Republican governor of California was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who won reelection in 2006. At that time, Republican and Democratic voter registration was more balanced. Currently, there are over 10 million registered Democrats compared to approximately 5 million Republicans.

Hilton’s Fundraising Efforts

This year, Hilton raised over $7 million, nearly half after April 19, showing growing appeal. Becerra raised just over $6 million, with the majority post-April 19. Tom Steyer leads with a substantial $160 million war chest. Hilton’s path to victory relies on expanding his coalition to include independents and possibly Democrats.

Becerra’s Campaign

Becerra has advanced to the November gubernatorial election in California. As a Democrat and former California attorney general, he emphasized his public service record and portrayed himself as a counterbalance to Trump. His campaign focused on affordability issues like housing and energy costs.

If successful, Becerra would become California’s first Latino governor in over a century. Though he has significant support, his leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and tenure in the Biden administration have been points of contention among rivals.