Shifts in Gulf-U.S. Relations Challenge American Influence

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For years, the United States viewed Gulf monarchies as essential allies in the Middle East. The U.S. military built an extensive network of bases across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. These countries hosted American troops, purchased U.S. weapons, and aligned with Washington’s regional strategies. In exchange, they expected protection under the U.S. security umbrella. That arrangement is now changing.

The key transformation in Middle Eastern geopolitics is occurring in the royal courts of the Gulf nations. These states are reconsidering if the U.S. remains a reliable security partner or merely uses their territory, leaving them vulnerable to adversaries. President Trump’s military actions against Iran have intensified this reevaluation.

When the U.S., alongside Israel, initiated conflict with Iran, Gulf states cooperated by allowing American forces to operate from their bases. Trump praised Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as excellent partners. However, supporting U.S. military actions came with risks. The Gulf’s energy facilities and desalination plants became targets for Iranian retaliation, starkly illustrating the costs of aligning with American military ventures.

A pivotal moment occurred with the introduction of “Project Freedom,” a U.S. naval initiative to safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Viewed by Washington as a show of strength, Tehran saw it as an escalation. The Gulf monarchies saw potential disaster. Saudi Arabia denied U.S. access to its airspace, followed by Kuwait. Qatar limited activities at Al-Udeid Air Base. Without Gulf support, the mission became unfeasible, causing Trump to halt the initiative after only two U.S.-flagged vessels were escorted through the strait.

This event marked a significant shift. Gulf states showed they could oppose major U.S. military plans, indicating that cooperation with the U.S. is now conditional. In the past, American operations relied on the assumption of guaranteed Gulf assistance in exchange for security. Now, Gulf countries question whose security is prioritized. They recognize the risk of being on the front lines in conflicts between Washington and Tehran, which has led to a reassessment of their strategic alliances.

Gulf nations are no longer automatically aligning with U.S. objectives. Instead, they are adopting a “transactional neutrality,” echoing Trump’s own “America First” approach. Gulf rulers have become more selective regarding U.S. operations and are diversifying their defense partnerships. This includes purchasing non-American military technologies and exploring alternative security arrangements.

Diplomatic initiatives with regional rivals, including Iran, emphasize de-escalation for strategic self-preservation. For Washington, this shift poses a challenge. The U.S.’s regional dominance has hinged on near-unconditional Gulf cooperation. Trump’s approach, however, has prompted many Gulf leaders to reevaluate the value of this partnership.

As Gulf countries reconsider their U.S. alliance’s worth, it affects more than immediate military initiatives. Reduced Gulf cooperation would limit the U.S.’s capacity to project power in the Middle East. The American military’s hardware advantage relies on accessible bases and political alliance, not merely advanced weapons.

The changing dynamics highlight a paradox for U.S. strategy. Alienating key allies like NATO and in Asia, while worrying Gulf partners, may leave the U.S. isolated. Though the Gulf nations are not cutting ties, they are narrowing the scope of their cooperation. This marks the end of unconditional support. Gulf states are hesitant to serve as unprotected platforms for U.S. operations. Once accustomed to resisting U.S. demands, returning to automatic compliance is unlikely.

Brahma Chellaney is the author of nine books, including the award-winning “Water: Asia’s New Battleground.”