Midterm Election Landscape Challenges Trump: Polls Show Decline in Approval Ratings

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, recent polls show President Donald Trump navigating a challenging political environment. The data, collected by Civiqs from 118,886 registered voters, reveal a nation divided by region with less favorable conditions for Trump than when he resumed office. A Newsweek analysis highlights changes in Trump’s approval ratings.

Approval Ratings and Key Findings

As of July 22, 2026, Trump holds a national approval rating of 38%, while 57% disapprove, leaving a net approval of -19 points. State-level analysis mirrors this trend, with Trump performing best in traditionally Republican states but remaining underwater in pivotal areas for the upcoming midterms.

• Trump faces negative approval in every major battleground state 100 days before the elections.
• States that previously showed positive net approval for Trump now show disapproval.
• Significant declines in approval ratings are noted, especially in initially supportive states.
• Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates tend to disapprove more than other groups.

Deep Red States Show Mixed Support

Trump’s strongest backing is still in Republican strongholds. Wyoming is the most supportive state with a net approval of +26, followed by North Dakota and West Virginia at +18 each, Alabama at +15, and Idaho at +14. However, even these states have seen declines since January 2025. Wyoming’s net approval dropped 21 points from +47, with Idaho and West Virginia experiencing similar decreases.

Kentucky’s example demonstrates shifts in support, moving from +23 at the start of Trump’s term to -1. The Republican base remains supportive, but margins are smaller compared to 18 months prior.

Swing States Remain Critical

Battleground states are pivotal, with Trump now underwater in each:

• Arizona: -11
• Georgia: -21
• Nevada: -16
• North Carolina: -13
• Pennsylvania: -12
• Wisconsin: -14
• Florida: -9
• Ohio: -8

These figures highlight significant transitions with states like Florida and Ohio moving from positive to negative net approval. The pattern suggests a need for strategic focus on these areas to potentially influence Congress’s control in the midterms.

Demographic Insights

Different demographics explain state-level trends. Younger voters show strong disapproval, with only 25% of those aged 18 to 34 approving Trump’s performance. This trend extends to ages 35-49, with 31% approving. Independents are mainly disapproving, with only 32% approval.

Educational attainment influences opinions significantly; 27% of postgraduates approve of Trump compared to 69% disapproving. Among non-college graduates, the approval-disapproval gap narrows.

Approval Declines Across States

Every state monitored shows a decrement in net approval since January 2025. Some states with initial support have experienced major declines:

• Kentucky: +23 to -1 (24 points drop)
• Wyoming: +47 to +26 (21 points drop)
• Florida: +9 to -9 (18 points drop)
• Idaho: +34 to +14 (20 points drop)
• West Virginia: +35 to +18 (17 points drop)

This trend occurs both in Democratic and Republican states, indicating broader electoral challenges for Trump.

Deep Blue States Stay Negative

In Democratic-leaning states, Trump remains deeply unpopular. Hawaii has the lowest net approval at -59, followed by Vermont at -54 and Maryland at -49. These states consistently show strong opposition to Trump, similar to the start of his term.

Middle States and Stability

The current political map shows many states close to neutral regarding approval. Indiana, Utah, and Kansas show slight positive margins, while states like Nebraska, Louisiana, and South Carolina hover near zero.

This distribution depicts a familiar map with some instability. Small shifts in voter sentiment can significantly affect midterm outcomes.

White House Response

The White House dismisses fluctuations in polls, emphasizing Trump’s past election victory and progress on key issues. Spokesman Davis Ingle references economic achievements, including jobs and inflation, as central to Trump’s record.