Key Primary Elections in August: Senate and Gubernatorial Races to Watch

More than twelve U.S. states are hosting primary elections in August, marking a significant phase in the midterm primary calendar after a slower July. Key Senate races in Michigan and Alaska are shaping November face-offs in pivotal contests that could determine the Senate’s control. Meanwhile, competitive House primaries in Missouri, Virginia, and Wisconsin offer insights into voter motivations in both major parties as Election Day approaches. Additionally, numerous gubernatorial primaries could alter the national political landscape, as state leaders play prominent roles during President Trump’s second term.

With less than 100 days remaining before the general election, both parties face heightened stakes in showcasing their political influence through these primaries. Below are ten notable races to follow next month:

Michigan Senate

The Democratic primary for Michigan’s Senate seat puts centrist Rep. Haley Stevens against progressive Abdul El-Sayed. They are contesting in the August 4 primary to challenge presumptive GOP nominee Rep. Mike Rogers. Stevens enjoys endorsements from Sen. Gary Peters, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health official, receives backing from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The outcome will indicate the Democratic strategy after losing battlegrounds in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the race a “toss-up,” and Decision Desk HQ suggests a Democratic lean. Republican success here significantly boosts their Senate majority chances.

South Carolina Senate

Sen. Darline Graham runs in an Aug. 11 special primary seeking a full term after temporarily filling her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat, who passed unexpectedly. Despite Trump’s endorsement, other strong GOP candidates, including Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, have entered the race. A runoff on August 25 may occur if no candidate secures a majority.

Minnesota Senate

Republicans prefer to face progressive Peggy Flanagan over centrist Rep. Angie Craig for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat. GOP candidate Michele Tafoya holds a primary lead. Despite Democratic primary contention, the state’s political climate poses challenges for Republicans.

Alaska Senate

Alaska’s Senate race presents a promising Democratic pickup on August 18. Democrat Mary Peltola, a former House representative, aims to unseat Sen. Dan Sullivan. The primary leads the top four candidates of all affiliations to the November ballot, amid potential voter confusion due to a challenger sharing the incumbent’s name.

Missouri 1st Congressional District

Former Rep. Cori Bush seeks a comeback against Rep. Wesley Bell in Missouri’s solid blue district. Bush, criticized over Israel stances, challenges Bell supported by AIPAC. Money spent by AIPAC could influence the election outcome on August 4.

Florida’s 20th Congressional District

Redistricting drives Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s run in a new district, facing pushback in a historically Black-represented seat. The Aug. 18 primary includes challengers like Elijah Manley and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. Wasserman Schultz’s longtime tenure and polling favor her.

Wisconsin Governor

Democratic socialist Francesca Hong leads the primary to face Republican Tom Tiffany. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley’s re-entry strengthens competition following Sara Rodriguez’s exit. Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes and other Democrats vie for the nomination on Aug. 11.

Minnesota Governor

Mike Lindell, with Trump’s support, leads the GOP primary to challenge Democrat Amy Klobuchar’s successor for Minnesota’s governorship. Despite criticism over fraud scandals, Cook Political Report moves this once “likely” Democratic seat toward a “solid” Democratic hold.

Michigan Governor

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s term limits set a competitive gubernatorial race. Trump endorses Rep. John James in the GOP primary, facing Mike Cox and Perry Johnson. Jocelyn Benson leads the Democratic race, impacted by former Mayor Mike Duggan’s departure.

Kansas Governor

With Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly term-limited, Republicans see an opportunity in Kansas. Trump’s endorsement of Ty Masterson provides an edge in the Aug. 4 primary. Democrats, including Cindy Holscher and Merrill Kelly, anticipate formidable opposition amidst the Republican-leaning climate.