Democrats and Republicans Face Off in 2028 Presidential Poll

An Emerson College poll highlights which Democrats are leading against Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in possible 2028 presidential matchups. The landscape for the next presidential election could solidify soon. Many candidates begin declaring their campaigns post-midterms, though some enter the race before these elections. Potential candidates are already crafting their messages and visiting key primary battlegrounds to enhance name recognition and connect with voters.

While the first primary votes are over a year away, polls provide insights into which candidates have early traction. Early polling data helps donors and voters evaluate a candidate’s potential, influencing their ability to secure funds and media attention. These early metrics often reflect a candidate’s initial name recognition, and shifts are common once primary elections commence.

The Democratic contenders are expected to form a competitive field. Names such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are potential candidates. For the Republicans, Vance and Rubio emerge as frontrunners if they decide to enter the race.

Democrats vs. Vance and Rubio

The Emerson poll, conducted with 1,000 likely voters from August 16-17, 2026, and a margin of error of ±3 percentage points, tested possible 2028 election matchups.

• Buttigieg leads both Vance and Rubio with 49% to 44%.
• Ossoff leads Vance by 5 points (49% to 44%) and Rubio by 3 points (47% to 44%).
• Newsom has a 5-point advantage over Vance (49% to 44%) and a narrower 2-point lead over Rubio (48% to 46%).
• Harris leads Vance by 4 points (49% to 45%) but trails Rubio by 5 points (48% to 43%).
• Ocasio-Cortez is behind both Republicans, with Vance leading by 2 points (46% to 44%) and Rubio by 5 points (48% to 43%).

Newsweek reached out for comments from representatives of Buttigieg, Harris, Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, Ossoff, Rubio, and Vance via email.

Leading the Democratic Primary

Current Democratic primary polls reflect a fragmented field. Harris holds a lead, leveraging her broad recognition. An Echelon Insights poll places Harris first with 18%, followed by Buttigieg at 13%, Newsom at 12%, and Ocasio-Cortez at 11%. Other candidates like Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received 7% and 6%, respectively. This poll surveyed 1,002 likely voters from August 13-17, 2026, with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.

An Emerson College poll indicates Buttigieg leading with 19%, Newsom at 17%, and both Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez at 13%. Harris has 8%, with Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Shapiro at 7% and 5% respectively. This involved 1,110 likely voters from July 19-20, 2026, with a ±2.9 percentage points margin of error.

Republican Primary Outlook

Potential Republican candidates are emerging leaders in early polls. The Echelon poll shows Vance at 39%, Rubio at 22%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 10%, and Donald Trump, Jr. at 8%. Similarly, the Emerson poll reveals Vance leading with 39%, closely followed by Rubio at 38%, and DeSantis with 5% support.

Statements from Potential Candidates

Vance: In June, Vance told CBS News he would decide about a 2028 run after midterms. He expressed confidence in receiving presidential support for any future decisions.

Harris: Harris, having traveled extensively, mentioned in April to Reverend Al Sharpton that she considers another presidential run. She emphasized her White House experience as preparation for the role.

Newsom: During a 2025 interview, Newsom mentioned a potential candidacy as a conceivable path, describing his readiness as a matter of destiny.

Ocasio-Cortez: In May, Ocasio-Cortez stressed her ambition to advocate for enduring policies over personal political ambitions, during a conversation with David Axelrod.

Ossoff: Ossoff ruled out a 2028 presidential run, stating he prioritizes current responsibilities over speculative future roles.

Upcoming Political Developments

The 2026 midterm elections are pivotal in shaping the political landscape for the 2028 presidential race. Following these elections, potential candidates are expected to intensify fundraising efforts, make strategic state visits, and solidify their campaign plans. Final primary calendars and related deadlines remain undecided, but the pace will likely increase as the 2026 elections conclude.

Contact Newsweek editors: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas for further information.