Recent polls indicate that Democratic Representative Chris Pappas faces a challenging contest against former Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race. This race is vital for Democrats aiming for a Senate majority in the 2026 midterm elections.
Current Standings
Polls show Sununu leading slightly. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates’ poll found Sununu with 37% and Pappas with 36% support, among 600 surveyed likely voters. The margin of error is 4 percentage points. A University of New Hampshire poll showed Sununu ahead 45% to 43%, with a smaller 2.3 percentage points margin of error.
Pappas remains strong against other potential GOP candidates. In one matchup, he leads former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown by 5 points.
Key Campaign Strategies
Pappas’ campaign emphasizes connecting with voters and addressing healthcare and corruption issues. Rachel Petri, his campaign manager, criticized Sununu for relying on external financial support.
Sununu draws attention to affordability concerns and critiques of foreign policy. He benefits from endorsement within his party, including from Donald Trump.
Previous Poll Trends
Earlier polls favored Pappas. A Saint Anselm College poll, for instance, showed Pappas ahead by 7 percentage points. A GOP internal poll gave him a narrower 1-point lead.
Primary Election and Prediction Markets
The New Hampshire primary is set for September 8. Both major candidates lead in their parties’ polls. Despite recent close polls, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket give Democrats strong odds for the New Hampshire seat.
Democratic Challenges
The race is part of a larger strategy for Democrats to secure Senate control. Currently, the Senate has a 53-47 Republican majority. Democrats need to win key races in swing states, defending seats in Georgia and Michigan, and targeting GOP-held seats in Maine and North Carolina.
New Hampshire’s Political Landscape
New Hampshire is a politically moderate state with a mix of Democratic and Republican support. Presidential elections have consistently favored Democrats, though Republicans have fared well in gubernatorial races. Independent voters play a critical role, with significant influence in rural and suburban areas.
Registered independents outnumber either party’s registered voters, highlighting the importance of winning their support in upcoming elections.
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