California Gubernatorial Primary Race Sees Tight Contest

Becerra Leads Polls in California’s Gubernatorial Primary

Xavier Becerra, former Health and Human Services Secretary, has taken the lead in the polls for California’s gubernatorial primary. This comes just days before voters head to the polls on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton are neck and neck, vying for the second position.

California uses a top-two primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The two receiving the most votes move to the general election. This system can result in candidates from the same party moving forward.

The state has shown strong Democratic support in recent elections. Kamala Harris won by about 20 points over Donald Trump in 2024. The last Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, left office in 2011.

Key Candidates in the Race

Gavin Newsom currently serves as California’s governor. However, due to term limits, he cannot run again. This has led to increased interest in the race, drawing attention nationwide.

Leading candidates include:

• Xavier Becerra: Democrat, served as HHS Secretary under President Biden.
• Chad Bianco: Republican, Riverside County sheriff.
• Steve Hilton: Republican, political commentator, former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron.
• Matt Mahan: Democrat, mayor of San Jose.
• Katie Porter: Democrat, former Congress member from Orange County.
• Tom Steyer: Democratic businessman.
• Tony Thurmond: Democrat, state’s superintendent of public instruction.
• Antonio Villaraigosa: Democrat, former Los Angeles mayor.

Some candidates have withdrawn, such as Eric Swalwell and Betty Yee.

The candidates range across the political spectrum. Becerra represents a traditional Democratic approach. Porter focuses on consumer protection. Villaraigosa is seen as centrist. Steyer’s campaign emphasizes climate change and economic equality.

For Republicans, Bianco is more conservative, while Hilton caters to a populist wing. Despite being a Democratic stronghold, the primary system allows potential for a Republican candidate in the general election. Donald Trump has endorsed Hilton.

Hilton expressed confidence but remains cautious as the primary approaches. He noted his top-two status in polls but acknowledged the race’s competitiveness.

Poll Results and Analysis

The latest Emerson College Polling survey indicates Becerra leads with 28% support. Steyer and Hilton are in a close contest, securing 22% and 21%, respectively. Lower support shows for Bianco at 12%, while Porter and Mahan each receive 5%. Five percent remain undecided.

Among undecided voters, Becerra holds steady at 28%, with both Hilton and Steyer getting 23% if undecided voters make a choice.

The poll reflects a margin of error of ±3 percentage points and was conducted among 1,000 likely voters on May 27-28. Spencer Kimball of Emerson College Polling noted, “Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status.” He also highlighted Hilton’s potential gain from Bianco’s support and Steyer’s strategy to mobilize younger voters.

Trend in Polls

Compared to mid-May polls from the same organization, Becerra saw a 9-point increase. Steyer and Hilton gained 5 and 4 points, respectively. An earlier poll had Becerra at 19%, with Hilton and Steyer at 17%. The latest numbers show Bianco at 11% and Porter at 10% with a ±3 margin of error.

Becerra and Steyer’s support has grown significantly this year. Hilton has shown modest upward momentum. In contrast, Porter’s support declined.

A University of California, Berkeley poll amongst 5,472 likely voters showed Becerra with 25%, Hilton with 21%, and Steyer with 19%. This poll’s margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

A PPIC Statewide Survey of 986 likely voters found Becerra leading at 23%, followed by Hilton at 20% and Steyer at 15%. The poll’s margin of error is ±4.1 percentage points, aligning Hilton and Becerra within a non-statistically definitive range.

These trends give Democrats hope, given the earlier possibility of a Republican advance to the general election due to vote splitting among Democrats.