Becerra Leads in California Gubernatorial Primary Poll

During a campaign event on May 21 at the Wende Museum in Culver City, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra rallied his supporters. As the primary election approaches, he has shown a significant lead in the latest poll results.

A recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling reveals Becerra leading in the gubernatorial primary with 28% support. Tom Steyer, a fellow Democrat, trails with 22%, while Republican Steve Hilton follows closely at 21%. The poll reflects increasing support for Becerra among key demographics, including 44% of Democrats, 36% of Hispanics, and 36% of women.

Republican Chad Bianco, the Sheriff of Riverside County, received 12% of support. In contrast, Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan secured 5% each. Hilton holds the largest share of the Republican vote with 59%, compared to Bianco’s 29%. Meanwhile, Steyer is popular among voters under 30, capturing 36%, and among white voters with 25%.

The California open primary rules dictate that the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the general election if no one secures a majority of votes. According to Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, Hilton might gain from any drop in Bianco’s support, while Steyer needs to energize younger voters and counteract Becerra’s expanding coalition.

The poll suggests a strong likelihood that voters will stick with their current choices, with 75% of surveyed individuals saying they will definitely vote for their selected candidate. However, 25% remain open to changing their preference, and 4% are undecided. When considering alternative support, Becerra maintained 28%, with Hilton and Steyer each at 23%.

The survey involved 1,000 likely voters between May 27-28, noting a significant increase in Becerra’s support by 9 percentage points since early May. Steyer and Hilton showed gains of 5 and 4 percentage points respectively. Bianco saw a slight increase of 1 point, while Mahan and Porter experienced drops of 3 and 5 percentage points.