Xi Jinping’s Strategic Investment in Trump Relations

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has invested significantly in strengthening his ties with President Donald Trump. They have held two summits this year and are slated to meet twice more. This relationship has been beneficial to China and a Democratic win in Tuesday’s midterm elections might disrupt the fragile peace with the United States, allowing Beijing to further its global agenda.

A key agreement with the White House to develop ‘a constructive relationship of strategic stability’ has been essential for Xi, aiding in stabilizing the Chinese economy and reforming the military a year before he seeks leadership renewal.

Xi’s Bet on Trump

The first Trump administration ended on a sour note with Beijing, and U.S. opinions on China dropped sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery of relations seemed uncertain. But Xi responded positively to Trump’s style of personal diplomacy, leading to mutual benefits.

The state visits in Beijing and Washington, D.C., bolstered Trump’s image, winning support even from ordinary Americans whose views on China have softened. This has led to two leaders rarely obstructing each other.

Stability with China has helped Trump achieve goals closer to home, such as in Venezuela and Greenland, while the U.S. focus on Iran has served as a useful distraction for Xi as China pursues its claims in the Indo-Pacific.

China appreciates Trump’s transactional diplomacy, focusing on economic gains over Western values like human rights or democracy. An America focused on the Western Hemisphere and indifferent to the Global South allows Beijing to lead global institutions as the U.S. steps back.

What China Could Lose

The cordial relations between Trump and Xi were affirmed at their summit in Busan, South Korea, a year ago. Here they agreed to reduce an escalating tariff war with deliverables like Chinese commitments to buy U.S. soybeans and ease export controls on rare earth metals.

Washington views the Busan agreement as trade-focused, but Beijing considers it more comprehensive. Chinese officials have cautioned that U.S. economic sanctions would counter the leaders’ personal agreements.

China’s satisfaction with current relations was evident during September talks to extend the Busan deal before it expired. Beijing proposed extending it until late 2028, effectively the end of Trump’s presidency, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent approved only a two-month extension.

The Chinese government desired long-term favorable terms for exporters, but the White House preferred assessing the situation post-midterms, anticipating either a stronger Trump or unmet promises by Xi.

A Democrat-controlled Congress could challenge Trump’s foreign policy, constrain federal funding, influence military activities like those in Cuba, and impact the Iran conflict. Skeptics in Congress might pressure Trump to take a firmer stance on human rights and be more supportive of Taiwan.

China’s Calculations

China comprehends the unpredictability of U.S. politics; agreements with democratic governments aren’t permanent. Xi plans two more summits with Trump at the APEC summit and the G20 meeting to buy more time, though he knows a Democrat-led Congress might pose challenges.

Democrats aim to contest Trump’s accommodating approach towards China. Analyst Yilun Zhang from the Institute for China-America Studies noted that a Democratic majority change would alter committee leadership and oversight, adding hurdles for Trump’s agreements.

Despite China’s preference, it remains prepared for a possible Democratic election victory. A divided government locked in internal conflicts could also prove convenient for Beijing.