Americans Decide Control of Congress in Upcoming Midterm Elections

In two days, Americans voting in the midterm elections will decide control of the U.S. House and Senate for the next two years. Republicans are defending their slim congressional majorities, and President Donald Trump predicts the GOP will hold both chambers.

“If you elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate on November 3rd, we will continue to put America first every single day,” President Trump pledged on the campaign trail last week. He also stated that if Democrats take control, “this country will go to hell.”

Republicans face the challenge of political history, as the party in power traditionally loses seats during midterm election years. They are also dealing with a challenging political climate marked by persistent inflation and what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, alongside Trump’s negative approval ratings.

Senate

Currently, Republicans control the Senate with a 53-47 majority. The Fox News Power Rankings ahead of Election Day label the race for Senate control as a toss-up. According to forecasts, both parties are three seats short of a majority. Democrats are favored in 48 seats, while Republicans lead in 47. The GOP needs to hold 50 seats to retain control, with Republican Vice President JD Vance serving as the tie-breaking vote.

The forecast suggests that if Democrats win most competitive races, they could achieve up to 54 seats. However, if Republicans defy expectations, they could hold the majority with up to 52 seats.

House of Representatives

The GOP holds a razor-thin majority in the House. Power Rankings indicate Democrats might retake control of the chamber. A successful night for Democrats could result in as many as 240 seats. Conversely, Republicans could end up with 212 seats, six short of a majority, creating challenges for the next Democratic House Speaker.

Early-closing districts on election night will offer insights into the House’s future. Kentucky’s 6th district, which encompasses Lexington and surrounding areas, looks closely contested this cycle.

Governors

The current breakdown is 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors. Power Rankings rate the gubernatorial races in Alaska, Nevada, and Georgia as toss-ups. Wisconsin, which is Democrat-controlled, also falls in this category. Races in red states like Florida, Kansas, and Texas are rated Lean Republican according to the Power Rankings.

Four other races rated as Lean Democrat include Arizona, Michigan, Oregon, and competitive states Iowa and Ohio.

Ballot Measures

This year’s midterm elections include several ballot measures. Referendums on voter ID requirements and noncitizen voting bans appear in 11 states. Alaska voters will decide on repealing the ranked choice voting system approved in 2020.

Virginia’s ballot includes voting rights restoration for felons upon release. Other interesting measures include California’s Proposition 40, proposing a one-time 5% tax on wealth for healthcare, and Washington State considering the repeal of a 9.9% tax on million-dollar incomes.

Many states have ballot measures addressing congressional redistricting, transgender students’ sports participation, and gender transition medical care bans for minors. Abortion rights and policies around energy, transportation, and development are also topics on several states’ ballots.

Poll Closings

The first polls close at 6pm ET on Election Day, with final poll closings at 1am ET.

• 6pm ET: Parts of Kentucky and Indiana.
• 7pm ET: Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and remaining polls in Kentucky and Indiana.
• 7:30pm ET: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia.
• 8pm ET: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington, D.C. Most polls in Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota.
• 8:30pm ET: Arkansas.
• 9pm PT: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, Wyoming. Remaining polls in Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota.
• 10pm ET: Montana, Utah, most polls in Idaho, Oregon.
• 11pm ET: California, Washington State, remaining polls in Idaho, Oregon.
• Midnight ET: All polls in Hawaii, most of Alaska, remaining polls in Alaska close at 1am ET.