Texas Senate Race Centers on Voter Turnout in Final Weeks

The Texas Senate race is incredibly close, with the outcome dependent on voter turnout. Republican Ken Paxton benefits from the state’s Republican tilt. Meanwhile, Democrat James Talarico gains support due to concerns over the economy and perceptions of his character.

Talarico’s position is bolstered by more Democrats expressing a commitment to vote, leading to an uncertain race as final weeks approach. An increase in Republican voter turnout could shift the dynamics.

Paxton’s Support

Paxton’s voters are largely supporting him because he is the GOP nominee, to oppose Talarico, or to back President Trump. In Texas, more support exists for Trump’s deportation policies compared to national trends, giving Paxton an advantage.

Outside economic considerations, Republicans worry Talarico’s policies might threaten their way of life. Many Republicans’ support comes from their intent to support Trump. Additionally, Talarico is perceived as “very liberal” by many, prompting them to vote for Paxton.

Talarico’s Appeal

The cost of living is Texans’ top concern, with most reporting they have been adversely affected by higher prices. Talarico leads among these voters. Personal character is crucial for Talarico’s supporters, more so than for Paxton’s.

Talarico captures 5% of Republicans and 9% of voters who usually shun voting for Democrats but plan to do so for him. Younger voters strongly support Talarico, though historically they vote less often than older generations.

Demographic Challenges and Opportunities

To succeed, Talarico must perform exceptionally with independents and shift some Republican votes or attract new voters. Texas has more Republicans than Democrats, posing a challenge.

Latino voters, a pivotal group in Texas, tilted towards Trump in 2024, but now predominantly back Talarico. Many Latinos feel the economic strain of high prices and question Paxton’s character for the Senate role.

Governor’s Race

In the governor’s race, incumbent Greg Abbott holds an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Interestingly, 7% of Talarico’s supporters also back Abbott.

The CBS News/YouGov survey conducted with 1,492 registered Texas voters between October 8-16, 2026, provides this analysis. The sample was adjusted for gender, age, race, and education based on U.S. Census data and the 2024 presidential vote. The survey has a margin of error of ± 3.4 points for registered voters and ± 3.5 points for likely voters.