Alaska Senate Race: Peltola Leads in Polls Amid Controversy

Mary Peltola, a former Alaska congresswoman, gains an edge over incumbent Dan Sullivan in the race for the state’s Senate seat. Recent polls place Peltola ahead by 7 percentage points, reflecting her ability to dismiss a negative report on alleged mistreatment of staffers.

The New York Times/Siena University poll, conducted from September 24 to October 1 among 504 likely voters, shows Peltola leading with 50% compared to Sullivan’s 43%. This gives her a +7 margin, with a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points. Peltola celebrated the poll results on social media, noting significant progress since the summer. “In June, we were down by 2 points. This month, in the very same poll, we’re up by 7,” she stated. “Alaska, we can win this.” If this lead holds, Peltola would become Alaska’s first Democratic senator since Mark Begich’s defeat in 2014.

Peltola vs. Sullivan: Poll Insights

Previous polls from late September showed Peltola and Sullivan closely matched. A Quantus Insight poll (September 28-30) with 758 likely voters revealed Sullivan at 46.1% and Peltola at 45.5%, a 0.6-point difference within an eight-point margin of error. Another poll by Republican firm Trafalgar Group (September 22-24) had Sullivan ahead by 1 point, while a co/efficient poll (September 14-17) gave Sullivan a +2 margin.

An Alaska Survey Research poll (September 10-12) involving 1,352 likely voters gave Peltola a +5 margin, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Voter Response to NYT Exposé

The latest poll gives Peltola her largest lead despite being conducted after a critical New York Times report. The piece detailed alleged abusive behavior, including derogatory slurs, by Peltola toward staffers. Her campaign denied these claims. Allegations included use of offensive language and physical confrontation. Peltola’s team explained her actions by citing personal grief over the deaths of her mother and husband in 2023.

Sullivan’s campaign leveraged the Times report in a negative ad, yet its impact remains uncertain. Some Alaskan voters, though disappointed, were unwilling to change their votes. Peltola continues to receive support from liberal figures like commentator James Carville.

Current Campaign Dynamics

Peltola has attacked Sullivan’s financial dealings, highlighting a violation of the STOCK Act in 2022. Sullivan’s active stock trading reportedly tripled his wealth during his Senate tenure, with trades totaling an estimated $2 million. Peltola advocates for a ban on congressional stock trading, a stance supported by her financial transparency.

Importance of the Alaska Senate Race

The Alaska Senate race is critical as Democrats eye a chance to gain Senate seats in the 2026 midterms. Republicans hold a narrow 53-47 majority. To win control, Democrats seek a net gain of four seats. Despite Alaska’s long Republican voting history, Peltola’s centrist approach has gained traction with moderates and independents. Her rise coincides with waning support for Trump, evidenced by the same New York Times/Siena University poll where 56% of likely voters expressed some degree of disapproval of Trump’s performance.

Contact Newsweek editors: Ben Kelly and Cristina Diciu.