Tiffany and Crowley Neck and Neck in Wisconsin Governor’s Race

A recent Marquette Law poll highlights a tight race between Republican Representative Tom Tiffany and Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley for the Wisconsin governor’s seat. The poll indicates Crowley holds 49 percent of the vote among likely voters, closely followed by Tiffany at 46 percent, with 5 percent still undecided. Among registered voters, Crowley leads with 46 percent compared to Tiffany’s 45 percent, while 9 percent remain undecided. The margin of error is 4.8 percent for likely voters and 4.3 percent for registered voters.

The Stakes

Midterm elections often reflect the political landscape influencing the incumbent party. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats during these elections. Currently, Republicans maintain a slim majority in both the House and Senate. With Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, not seeking re-election, both parties are vying for control of this pivotal position.

“We’ve seen unprecedented spending from Trump-aligned billionaires,” said Crowley’s Campaign Manager Garren Randolph in response to the poll. “However, Wisconsinites recognize David Crowley’s commitment. We must continue strong efforts as the opposition billionaires aim to influence this election.”

In contrast, Tiffany criticized Crowley’s past decisions: “As Milwaukee County Executive, Crowley has repeatedly raised taxes,” he stated. Tiffany also promised to return a $3 billion surplus and reduce state taxes by 10 percent for working families.

Support Fluctuations

The poll results have shifted slightly since last month. Crowley maintained 49 percent support from likely voters, while Tiffany, endorsed by Trump earlier, held 44 percent. However, among registered voters, the race was previously deadlocked at 44 percent for both candidates. Republican support for Tiffany has grown by 4 points, whereas Crowley’s Democratic support declined by 2 points. His support among independents dropped by a substantial 11 percentage points.

Favorability ratings in the poll show 31 percent for Crowley against a 44 percent unfavorable rating, while Tiffany has a 39 percent favorability and a 45 percent unfavorable rating. Trump’s approval rating has decreased to 38 percent with a disapproval at 60 percent.

Democrats aim to leverage Trump’s declining ratings as the midterms approach in less than five weeks. Concerns centered on the economy, immigration, employment, and the ongoing conflict in Iran have affected his approval ratings.

Tiffany’s Recent Breaks With Trump

Tiffany’s recent positions differ from Trump’s on multiple issues. Trump’s decision to change Lake Ontario’s name to ‘Lake America’ intensified U.S.-Canada tensions. Tiffany remarked, “The Great Lakes should retain their historical names.”

In terms of data centers, Tiffany disagrees with Trump’s supportive stance. “Ending subsidies for these wealthy companies is necessary,” he stated, emphasizing the importance of protecting residential ratepayers.

Additionally, Tiffany opposed Trump’s plan to waive tariffs on imported beef, siding with local farmers to prevent foreign beef from undercutting Wisconsin produce.

Insights From Other Polls

Different surveys mirror this close contest. A Platform Communications poll puts Crowley 4 points ahead with 48 percent over Tiffany’s 44 percent. Another poll by RMG Research for the Institute for Reforming Government shows Crowley leading by 3 points. The Cook Political Report regards this race as a toss-up, indicating the high competitiveness of the Wisconsin gubernatorial contest.