James Talarico’s Senate Race Journey

James Talarico is showing strong performance in his Senate race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. His polling numbers currently surpass those of Beto O’Rourke at this stage in the 2018 campaign when O’Rourke almost defeated Senator Ted Cruz. Democrats have long sought to turn Texas blue, yet have consistently fallen short. This year, assessments rate the Senate race as a toss-up. A win for Talarico would mark the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas in almost four decades. Senator Cruz has cautioned that a Democratic win in Texas could enable them to dominate nationally for a century.

James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton

According to a SoCal Strategies poll, Talarico is leading Paxton with 50% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 45%. This is a reversal from June when Paxton was in the lead. Talarico has significantly widened his support among Hispanic voters, increasing the gap from 10 points in June to 38 points in the latest poll. Among independent voters, his lead has grown from 10 to 45 points. Additionally, 12% of Republican voters express support for Talarico.

“As seen in previous polls, Republicans appear less decided than Democrats. Six percent of Trump supporters from 2024 remain undecided in the Senate race, whereas only one percent of Harris voters share this indecision,” the survey report explains. “To succeed, Paxton must capture nearly all these undecided voters and reclaim a significant portion of the 12% of Republicans who currently back Talarico.”

Talarico’s odds have improved significantly on prediction platforms. Polymarket now rates his chances at 53%, a change from late July when Paxton led with 56%. Kalshi offers similar odds, at 52% for Talarico, reflecting a shift from a few days ago when Paxton was favored by a comparable margin.

Beto O’Rourke’s Chances Against Ted Cruz in 2018

In the 2018 campaign at this time, Cruz held a narrow lead over O’Rourke by approximately 3 points, based on a Real Clear Politics poll average. Cruz eventually defeated O’Rourke by 2 points. Although close, Cruz recognized O’Rourke’s strong campaign. Now, Cruz warns of potential Democratic victories. On a recent podcast, Cruz indicated that Republicans “could lose Texas,” and previously in July, he acknowledged Talarico’s potential.

“This is a real race,” Cruz told Texas Governor Greg Abbott during Sean Hannity’s radio show. “It’s going to be close. We think we’ll win and keep Texas red, but polls suggest a 1- or 2-point race,” expressed Cruz. He also shared with Sean Spicer, former press secretary for President Trump, his concerns about the Senate. He identified Texas among “very competitive” Senate races and anticipates a “really rough election” for Republicans.