Minnesota Senate Race: Flanagan and Tafoya in Tight Competition

Recent polling indicates a tight race between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat. Flanagan leads with 44% to Tafoya’s 42%, a slim two-point gap that falls within the poll’s margin of error. Conducted by TIPP/League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2, the survey included 1,201 likely voters. Additionally, 4% support other candidates, 2% named someone else, and 8% remain undecided. This follows both candidates securing nominations last month for the seat vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith. The poll’s margin of error is 3%.

The League of American Workers, led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes, is a conservative advocacy group, although not formally aligned with the Republican Party. Midterm elections often test the political climate for the party in control. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats during such elections. Currently, Republicans hold narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate. The Cook Political Report rates this race as likely Democrat, considering that former Vice President Kamala Harris won Minnesota by about four points in the 2024 presidential election against Donald Trump.

“Michele Tafoya would be nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump. She supports his ICE and mass deportation agenda that led to two Minnesotans being killed, defended January 6 rioters who assaulted police officers and tried to overturn a free and fair election, and supports Trump’s reckless tariffs that are hammering farmers and driving up prices for everyone.”

This statement from Flanagan’s campaign spokesperson, Lexi Byler, reflects their position on Tafoya’s alignment with Trump’s policies. By contrast, Tafoya contends Minnesotans are discontent with the current administration’s accountability and leadership, as expressed in her response on social media.

Flanagan entered the general election after a primary victory over Representative Angie Craig, signifying a win for the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. Endorsements from prominent figures like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar highlight her alignment with progressive values. Meanwhile, Tafoya leverages her fame as a former NFL sideline reporter to gain traction in her campaign, attracting national attention as Republicans seek gains in Minnesota.

Earlier polls also showed Flanagan ahead but by a larger margin. Tafoya’s narrowing the gap suggests an altering electoral dynamic as the November election approaches. Flanagan holds more support among Gen-Z, Millennials, women, Black, and Hispanic voters, while Tafoya finds favor with older, male, and white voters. Both share 37% of independent votes. Among registered voters, Flanagan leads with 40% to Tafoya’s 38%, according to a poll of 1,494 registered voters with a 2.7% margin of error.

Favorability ratings show Tafoya with 34% favorable and 30% unfavorable, while 36% have no opinion. Flanagan’s ratings are 39% favorable against a 34% unfavorable, with 28% lacking an opinion. Although polls query Flanagan’s stance on gender transitions for minors, Tafoya’s policies in these areas remain unaddressed in this survey. The tight two-point gap leaves room for both candidates to appeal to undecided voters.

Market predictions from Kalshi give Flanagan a 90.5% chance and Tafoya a 9.5% chance of winning. Polymarket shows similar results, with Flanagan at 94% and Tafoya at 8% chance of victory.