Drought Intensification in the West: The Role of El Niño

The current drought conditions in the western United States are dire, with certain regions experiencing exceptionally severe drought. States such as Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle are particularly affected. Experts warn that these conditions could worsen as the year progresses.

AccuWeather forecasters have expressed concern over long-term drought conditions. A significant El Niño event expected this year could potentially affect the Plains states for years. Paul Pastelok, a long-range expert, highlighted the possibility of severe drought leading to a ‘mini Dust Bowl.’

Joel Myers, AccuWeather founder and executive chair, emphasized that drought is not solely a weather issue but also an economic one. Crop stress, particularly for soybeans, may reduce yields and impact food production, resulting in price inflation.

El Niño could impact the drought by altering rainfall patterns, though its effects are variable depending on the region. Dillon Amaya from North Carolina State University noted that El Niño typically makes the American Southwest wetter and the Pacific Northwest drier. Its impact on the Plains states is less predictable.

The Southern Plains, including Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, are facing prolonged drought conditions. Joel Lisonbee from the National Integrated Drought Information System cautioned that even significant rainfall might not resolve the drought. Multiple wet years may be required to restore reservoirs, streams, and aquifers.

An historical example from 1957 to 1959 demonstrated that a strong El Niño can end severe droughts, though it may also cause flooding. Research indicates mixed outcomes of El Niño on drought in the Plains states.

Current forecasts suggest this year’s El Niño could be especially strong. The Climate Prediction Center estimates an 81% likelihood of a ‘very strong’ peak, with a 97% chance of lasting until spring 2027.