Key Congressional Races to Watch in Upcoming Elections

The control of the U.S. Congress is uncertain as several pivotal races will decide which party holds the majority in the House and Senate during the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency. The Republicans currently dominate both chambers, with 53 Senate seats and 218 House seats.

Historical trends suggest a shift towards Democratic gains, as the ruling party often loses seats in midterm elections. For instance, Democrats under President Joe Biden lost nine House seats in 2022, and Republicans lost around 40 seats during the 2018 midterms in Trump’s first term. Current expectations are that Democrats will take control of the House, while the Senate races remain highly competitive, particularly in states Trump won in 2024. Campaigns have seen hundreds of millions of dollars poured into several critical races by super PACs and billionaire donors.

Alaska Senate

Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election, battling Democrat Mary Peltola, the first Alaska native to serve in Congress. However, the ballot includes Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., whose candidacy seems part of a strategy to bolster Peltola. This prompted Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy to launch an investigation into Peltola’s campaign. Polls show Sullivan and Peltola are closely matched and occasionally Peltola takes a slight lead. Although Trump won Alaska in 2024 by 13 points, the close race led him to campaign for Sullivan in Wasilla on Oct. 13.

Rank-choice voting is used in Alaska, allowing voters to rank their preferred candidates. A lawsuit by the Justice Department seeks to prevent certification if election results suggest confusion over the two candidates named Dan Sullivan.

Iowa Senate

This Midwest race to fill the seat of departing Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has become one of the nation’s tightest contests. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, previously a broadcast journalist, faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, a paralympic gold medalist. Despite Trump’s 13-point win in Iowa in 2024, polls indicate a toss-up. Hinson, who has served Iowa in the House since 2021, has sought distance from Trump, advocating an “immediate end” to the Iran War, though Trump has campaigned alongside her recently.

Michigan Senate

Michigan’s open Senate race stands out as highly contentious. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and ex-public health director, strives to become the nation’s first Muslim senator, competing against Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and House representative. Both vie to replace Democrat Sen. Gary Peters.

El-Sayed earned his nomination after a challenging primary against Rep. Haley Stevens, where his criticism of Israel’s Gaza actions sparked debate. Prominent Democratic figures like Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have rallied for him. Republicans have criticized El-Sayed’s Muslim identity and progressive politics, with Vice President JD Vance questioning his patriotism.

Recent polling positions El-Sayed slightly ahead of Rogers, although within the margin of error.

Maine Senate

Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, seeks a sixth term in moderate Maine, contesting Democrat Troy Jackson. Jackson took the nomination after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew due to sexual assault allegations, which he denies.

Maine is the only state Trump did not win in 2024 where an incumbent Republican faces re-election. Collins has publicly diverged from Trump on many policies and endorsed convicting him at the impeachment trial after the Capitol riots. Despite backing Trump’s Supreme Court picks, Collins has faced criticism related to her Roe v. Wade support.

As chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Collins highlights federal funding brought to Maine. Polling shows Jackson marginally ahead of Collins in this tight contest.

Ohio Senate

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown competes against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to replace Vance after he joined the White House in 2025.

Outside spending exceeding $200 million has heightened this race’s intensity. However, it’s a special election to complete Vance’s term until 2028, when the winner must seek a full term.

Brown, ousted by Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024, leads in polling, despite Ohio’s recent Republican leanings.

Kansas Senate

Kansas, historically Republican since 1932, could see Democratic Adam Hamilton challenge incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. Hamilton, who established the U.S.’s largest Methodist congregation, faces Marshall, a supported candidate by Trump.

Marshall’s history of pursuing past medical debts has stirred controversy. Hamilton leads polls by up to five points, inciting last-minute spending from both parties. Republicans demonstrated concern for retaining Kansas by reallocating campaign funds from North Carolina.

Texas Senate

In this highly scrutinized race, Democrat James Talarico seeks to become Texas’ first Democratic Senator since 1993 against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who replaced Sen. John Cornyn in a May Republican runoff.

Talarico is slightly leading in polls in this highly competitive race, which has surpassed $500 million in ad spending, potentially becoming history’s costliest non-presidential election.

New Hampshire Senate

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen faces a challenge in New Hampshire from Democrat Chris Pappas and former Sen. John Sununu, Shaheen’s beat in 2008. Sununu is a well-known name due to his family’s political legacy in the state.

Pappas leads polls against his opponent endorsed by Trump, but Republicans are optimistic that the Sununu family’s influence will help rally their base.

Michigan-07

One of the priciest House races involves Republican Rep. Tom Barrett against progressive William Lawrence, a climate organizer who founded the Sunrise Movement. Michigan’s seventh district shifted Republican in 2024 after Rep. Elissa Slotkin left to run for Senate.

Lawrence, defeating moderate Democratic contenders in the primary, was polling close to Barrett in August and now leads polls.

Texas-15

In South Texas, the Republican grip on Hispanic voters is tested in Texas’ 15th district, where 75% are eligible Hispanic voters.

Incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz faces Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning Tejano musician. Polls suggest Pulido’s lead, though this region’s results often defy predictions. Cook Political Report views the race as a toss-up.

Ohio-07

Republican Rep. Max Miller, ex-Trump aide, competes with Democrat Brian Poindexter, a union worker, in Ohio’s traditionally Republican seventh district, won by Trump in 2024 by 11 points.

Allegations against Miller of domestic abuse, which he denies, have brought extensive scrutiny. His connection to Sen. Bernie Moreno sparked public calls for Miller to pursue “professional help” and for exiting the race from Moreno and Sen. John Husted, creating a volatile political scene rated as a toss-up.