North Carolina Senate Race Influenced by Abortion Policy Messaging

New Study Findings: A commissioned study by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America reveals significant shifts in voter support within North Carolina. The study targets messages focused on abortion policies attributed to Roy Cooper, the Democratic Senate candidate and former governor. These messages appear to influence voter preference towards Republican candidate Michael Whatley.

The communication strategy emphasized former Governor Roy Cooper’s abortion record, particularly his support for federal abortion legislation. This strategy has reportedly engaged over 770,000 households across North Carolina. Canvassers are prioritizing persuadable and low-turnout voters, highlighting Cooper’s actions, such as his veto of state-level restrictions and his support for federal legislation perceived as overriding state limits.

“The focus on abortion policies and Cooper’s decision to veto the 12-week limit resonates strongly within North Carolina,” stated Marjorie Dannenfelser, President of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

Cooper’s veto of the 2023 law, banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, was overridden by the Republican-controlled General Assembly. This law’s popularity contrasts with Cooper’s stance and continues to influence voter behavior across the state.

Study’s Methodology and Results: Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America engaged Evolving Strategies to execute a randomized-controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of four distinct messages concerning Senate candidates’ positions on abortion. The study involved 2,607 confirmed registered voters in North Carolina, using predictive modeling to identify persuadable voter targets.

The messaging categories included: “Fed” to criticize federal legislation support, “Record” highlighting Cooper’s abortion record, and “Soft Positive” and “Hard Positive” endorsing Whatley’s pro-life stance. Each message contributes to an increase in Republican vote margins, with the “Fed” and “Record” messages notably effective.

The study indicates a potential net transition of +12 points among targeted voters. This aligns with the anticipated competitiveness of North Carolina’s Senate race as Republicans aim to maintain their Upper Chamber majority.

Strategic Priorities: Dannenfelser reiterates the strategy of prioritizing the most effective voters based on consumer data profiles rather than party lines. This involves direct communication at voters’ doors and through digital channels.

Understanding the impact of these messages on voter sentiment continues to be crucial. These communication efforts focus on individuals feeling disconnected from the Democratic Party’s approach, underscoring the lasting significance of abortion policy within the state.