California Republicans Strategize Amid Trump’s Influence in Upcoming Election

As President Trump calls for votes in the November election as if he were a candidate, California Republicans in close congressional races are sending a different message. They are distancing themselves from Trump as they campaign ahead of the November 3 election. Four California Republicans in competitive U.S. House races, plus a fifth contesting a fellow Republican, skipped Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas. Their campaign websites have removed Trump references, focusing instead on local and state issues, differing from Trump’s loyalty-driven approach.

Trump emphasized his importance at the GOP midterm convention, urging voters to act as if he were on the ticket. Trump’s strategy shows competing factors within the GOP: attracting new voters in newly purple districts after California’s redistricting, rallying the base, and concern over Trump’s low approval ratings potentially losing seats.

“These candidates are hoping that Trump motivates these voters to vote… [while they] focus on gaining votes, particularly from independents who don’t like the president right now,” said Rob Stutzman, a longtime California Republican consultant.

The state’s redistricting under Proposition 50 made districts more favorable to Democrats, forcing Republican candidates to appeal to unaffiliated voters and moderate Democrats. Pete Peterson from Pepperdine University noted the necessity for Republican candidates to appeal to newer electorates due to moderating districts.

Facing Headwinds

Historically, the ruling party faces challenges during midterm elections, and candidates often distance themselves from the sitting president. Republicans aim to maintain control of the House and Senate amid Trump’s low favorability ratings and public dissatisfaction with the economy, Iran war, and Canadian trade war.

Although Trump dismisses concerns about the economy and the war, polling shows these issues heavily influencing voters. Trump’s endorsement of AI advancements contrasts his party candidates addressing public concerns about AI and data centers. Some Republicans criticized Trump’s offer of $5,000 payments to citizens if the GOP wins the House and Senate, a legally unclear proposition.

Despite skepticism among candidates, Trump has encouraged running on his record and promised to support candidates in 35 battleground races. However, plans for California were not mentioned.

Many Republican candidates have reduced mentions of Trump on social media. A Washington Post analysis found mentions of Trump decreased by half since January, reflecting a broader trend of distancing from Trump. Some candidates oppose Trump’s initiatives on data centers and payout ideas.

California GOP’s challenges were highlighted in a survey by the Public Policy Institute, showing independents favor Democrats in House districts. A major share of likely voters in early September preferred the Democratic candidate.

Leaning on the Local

California Republicans spotlight regional issues over partisan politics. Candidates like Rep. Young Kim removed Trump branding from her campaign website. Moreover, Rep. James Gallagher deleted Trump’s endorsement from his website, previously showcasing a connection to Trump.

Other Republicans, such as Rep. David Valadao, Kevin Lincoln, and Jim Desmond, avoided Trump’s convention, focusing on regional campaign strategies. Valadao, who voted for Trump’s impeachment, rarely mentions Trump. Desmond omits Trump support on his web endorsements. Lincoln retains Trump references.

Rep. Kevin Kiley left the Republican Party, focusing on centrist voters while advocating AI legislation. Although Kiley continues to caucus with congressional Republicans, he plans not to if reelected.

Efforts to appear independent convey to moderate voters that candidates won’t conform to party lines, but will adhere to common sense. The strategy might allow centrist Democratic voters to consider these candidates.

In competitive districts, focusing on local issues might be the most effective strategy rather than Trump’s request to act as if he were on the ballot.

Republicans are arguing their case amidst California’s affordability issues worsened by Democrats. They contend that Democrats’ focus on Trump is excessive, with few substantial policy solutions.

Mike Madrid, a veteran California Republican political consultant, noted that Republicans’ retreat signals dwindling popularity for Trump. “When you’re distancing yourself from the president of your own party… I don’t think that’s subtle at all.”

Despite retreating, Republicans emphasize their records, urging voters to evaluate Democratic policies rather than focus solely on Trump.