Controversy Surrounds Laurie Buckhout and Prediction Markets

Laurie Buckhout, a North Carolina Republican aiming to win a Democratic-held congressional seat, faced penalties and a suspension from Kalshi after buying contracts linked to her electoral race. Prediction markets have gained popularity in recent years, allowing individuals to purchase contracts related to current events, including elections. These markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, have stoked concerns regarding ethics in government, as politicians have previously engaged in insider trading.

Kalshi issued a notice detailing disciplinary action against Buckhout, an Army veteran campaigning for Congress in North Carolina’s 1st District. She violated Rule 5.17(z), which bars anyone who is a “decision maker” or “has any influence” from trading on the relevant event. Buckhout purchased under $1,000 worth of contracts pertaining to her own candidacy, leading to a $2,589.96 fine and a three-year suspension from Kalshi.

The Compliance Department noted that Buckhout announced her candidacy for public office, making her a market option for a contract on a North Carolina Congressional election. As a candidate, she qualified as a decision maker, directly influencing the event’s outcome.

Kalshi indicated in the filing that Buckhout cooperated with their investigation and agreed to the settlement terms, including a financial penalty and trading restrictions. Buckhout addressed the issue in a statement to Newsweek, acknowledging her mistake and effort to rectify it.

Madison Andrus, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, criticized Buckhout, casting doubt on her ability to represent North Carolina families ethically.

Llaurie Buckhout Running in a Competitive Race

Buckhout is contesting a closely watched district in northeastern North Carolina, presently held by Democratic Representative Don Davis. Ahead of the midterms, the district was redistricted to favor Republicans more, supporting President Donald Trump by nearly 12 points. Despite the conservative leaning, Democrats still view the race as competitive.

Internal polls show a tight race. Davis led Buckhout by 4 percentage points in a poll conducted by GQR, surveying 500 likely voters from June 22 to June 28, 2026. A separate poll by co/efficient for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Buckhout and Davis tied at 41 percent each, favoring Republicans by four points.

Forecasts predict a competitive race. The Cook Political Report rates it as Leans Republican, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers it a toss-up following redistricting.

Other Politicians Involved in Similar Incidents

Other candidates have faced suspension from Kalshi for insider trading previously. Earlier this year, Democrat Matt Klein, independent Senate candidate Mark Moran, and GOP primary contestant Ezekiel Enriquez were suspended for similar actions. Additionally, former Representative George Santos received a permanent ban and a substantial fine after a case linked to trades on his attendance at a State of the Union address.

Santos reacted to the ban on a social platform, expressing criticism towards Kalshi.

For further information, contact Gabe Whisnant and Geoffrey Rowland at Newsweek.