Kamala Harris Leads Among Young Democrats in 2028 Hypothetical Poll

Harris Gains Traction Among Young Democrats

A recent survey indicates that former Vice President Kamala Harris is leading a hypothetical 2028 presidential field among young Democrats. Harris was chosen by 28.7% of Democratic respondents aged 18 to 34. This is almost double the 14.9% who favored former First Lady Michelle Obama. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) ranked third with 11.7%.

The poll, conducted by Axios-Generation Lab, surveyed 1,075 adults aged 18 to 34 from July 29 to August 4. None of the three women have announced intentions to run in 2028. Among young independents, Obama led with 11.4%, followed by AOC at 9.2%, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 7.4%. Among young Republicans, Vice President JD Vance was ahead with 31.5%, with Donald Trump Jr. and Secretary of State Marco Rubio following.

Younger Americans Express Dissatisfaction

The survey reflects dissatisfaction among younger Americans, with 66% disapproving of President Donald Trump’s job performance. Additionally, 96% expressed concern over rising costs of essentials like rent, groceries, and utilities. Generation Lab CEO Cyrus Beschloss noted the widespread dissatisfaction with both political parties.

In the poll, 37% identified as Democrats, 26% as Republicans, and 29% as independents. The margin of error was +/- 3.01 percentage points.

Analysis of Harris, Obama, and AOC

Harris’ support exceeded the combined backing for Obama and Ocasio-Cortez, who together garnered 26.6%. Despite leading, Harris did not capture a majority, highlighting the uncertain Democratic field. Harris is the only one among them with prior national presidential campaign experience, having run in 2024 before losing to Trump.

Obama’s notable second-place finish is significant given she has never held elected office and has shown no interest in a political career. Her wider appeal among independents contrasted with her Democratic support.

Meanwhile, AOC’s profile remains high among progressives. Since her election to Congress in 2018, she has advocated for actions on climate change and economic equality. Despite this, she lagged behind Harris by 17 percentage points among young Democrats and was 3.2 points behind Obama.

Republicans and Trump Face Challenges with the Youth

The poll highlighted young Americans’ opposition to Trump, with 66% disapproving of his performance. When asked about party trust on lowering living costs, 32% chose Republicans while 26% picked Democrats. A significant 36% trusted neither party.

This result is notable due to the economic concerns of those surveyed. Despite widespread concerns about cost increases, less than 25% trusted the president’s party to address these issues. This indicates dissatisfaction with both major political parties, not a shift towards Democrats.

Historically, polls have underestimated Trump’s popularity, with him performing better than expected in past presidential campaigns. Newsweek contacted the White House for a response. In June, the White House addressed Trump’s declining ratings, stating that the 2024 election would be the ultimate judgment.