Analysis of President Trump’s Approval Ratings

Current State of Trump’s Approval Ratings

Approximately 18 months into President Donald Trump’s second term, new polling data from Civiqs reveals the evolving political landscape in America. Despite the persistent partisan divide, early advantages for the president have lessened over time. This data represents input from 117,851 registered voters, analyzed by Newsweek. Comparing Trump’s approval ratings from January 20, 2025, to July 17, 2026, we see a national disapproval rate significantly outweighing approval, resulting in a net approval rating of -21.

Key Findings

• Trump’s approval is underwater in major battleground states.
• Support is strongest in Republican strongholds like Wyoming, North Dakota, and Idaho.
• Previously positive states have shifted to negative net approval.
• Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates show the weakest support.

Impacts and Implications

The new state-by-state polling shows the president facing challenges in every swing state, where even minor changes could affect congressional dynamics in 2026. Trump’s strongest support continues in the deep red states, although margins have decreased.

Support in Republican Strongholds

Despite maintaining positive net approval in core Republican areas, numbers have waned since his return to office. Wyoming, previously at +47, now stands at +24. North Dakota leads at +18, Idaho at +14, and West Virginia at +16. These reductions are noteworthy compared to the margins when Trump began his term.

Battleground States

The critical focus remains on swing states. Trump is underwater in these strategic areas:

• Arizona: -11
• Georgia: -21
• Nevada: -21
• North Carolina: -13
• Pennsylvania: -14
• Wisconsin: -15
• Florida: -12
• Ohio: -11

Significant shifts have occurred in states such as Florida and Ohio, which initially held positive approval ratings.

Strong Opposition in Democratic Zones

Opposition to Trump remains robust in Democratic territories. Hawaii scores the lowest net approval at -59. Vermont, Maryland, and Massachusetts are also deeply negative. The entrenched disapproval indicates a static situation rather than dynamic change.

Demographic Insights

The state map reflects demographic patterns in Trump’s approval ratings. Younger adults (18 to 34 years old) show only 24% approval. Independents and women generally disapprove. Educational divisions add complexity; postgraduates are largely disapproving, contrasting with non-college graduates.

Largest Declines in Approval

Every state has experienced a decrease in net approval since January 2025. Substantial drops are evident:

• Wyoming: +47 to +24
• Kentucky: +23 to 0
• Florida: +9 to -12
• Idaho and North Dakota: sizable reductions

These declines mainly occur in Republican-leaning states rather than traditionally oppositional ones.

Narrowing Margins

Many states now hover near equilibrium between approval and disapproval. Indiana is at +3, Utah +4, and Kentucky is at 0, indicating a tighter political map.

Overall Political Landscape

While the map’s partisan outline remains, Trump’s grasp in Republican territory has weakened. The once favorable margins in battlegrounds are now less assured.

White House Perspective

The White House maintains confidence, pointing to Trump’s 2024 electoral win as validation of the public’s support. Spokesman Davis Ingle describes Trump’s policies as popular, emphasizing continuity and commitment to his agenda.